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La Liga
Referee: Carlos Del Cerro Grande
Malaga
S T S S S
3–0
Full-time
Celta
T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malaga Celta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,8
This season — La Liga · 35/34 matches
Win Ø 35%
31%
38%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
46%
65%
Both score Ø 51%
54%
47%
Average goals
2,7
3,1
Scored
1,3
1,4
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%
14 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Malaga 13. · Celta 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 36 26 6 4 +74 84
2 Real Madrid 35 26 6 3 +57 84
3 Ath Madrid 36 22 8 6 +41 74
4 Sevilla 36 20 9 7 +18 69
5 Villarreal 36 18 9 9 +21 63
6 Ath Bilbao 36 19 5 12 +12 62
7 Sociedad 36 19 5 12 +6 62
8 Eibar 36 15 9 12 +8 54
9 Espanol 36 14 11 11 -1 53
10 Alaves 36 13 12 11 -4 51
11 Celta 34 13 5 16 -8 44
12 Valencia 36 12 7 17 -8 43
13 Malaga 35 11 9 15 -7 42
14 Las Palmas 36 10 9 17 -15 39
15 Betis 35 10 7 18 -19 37
16 La Coruna 36 7 11 18 -21 32
17 Leganes 35 7 9 19 -23 30
18 Sp Gijon 36 6 9 21 -31 27
19 Granada 36 4 8 24 -50 20
20 Osasuna 36 3 10 23 -50 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Malaga Celta
14′
🟨 Álvaro Lemos
1–0 Javi Ontiveros
Recio
26′
30′
🟨 Jozabed Sánchez
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Recio
56′
59′
🔁 F. Roncaglia
↦ G. Cabral
70′
🔁 A. Hjulsager
↦ Josep Señé
Juan Carlos 🔁
↦ Jony
75′
Ignacio Camacho 🟨
80′
Recio 🟨
80′
80′
🟨 John Guidetti
82′
🔁 J. Guidetti
↦ Jozabed
Keko 🔁
↦ Javi Ontiveros
85′
89′
🟨 Pape Cheikh
G. Castro 🔁
↦ Pablo Fornals
89′
3–0 Sandro Ramírez
Juan Carlos
92′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Malaga

4-2-3-1
1 C. Kameni
23 Miguel Torres D
24 Luis Hernández D
5 Diego Llorente D
15 F. Ricca D
6 Ignacio Camacho M
21 Jony M
14 Recio M
31 Pablo Fornals M
39 Javi Ontiveros M
19 Sandro Ramírez F
Bench (7)
7 Juan Carlos
20 Keko
11 G. Castro
3 M. Demichelis
9 Charles
13 D. Boyko
17 Duda

Coach: Míchel

Celta

4-2-3-1
1 Sergio Álvarez G
22 G. Cabral D
21 Planas D
20 Sergi Gómez D
5 M. Díaz M
16 Jozabed M
23 Josep Señé M
15 Álvaro Lemos D
4 Pape Diop M
12 C. Beauvue F
7 T. Bongonda M
Bench (7)
24 F. Roncaglia
17 A. Hjulsager
9 J. Guidetti
2 Hugo Mallo
10 Iago Aspas
19 Jonny Castro
27 Iván Villar

Coach: E. Berizzo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Carlos Del Cerro Grande · 78 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.