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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge de Sousa

Estoril

S S T S U

4–2

Full-time

Arouca

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

33%

52%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

67% Possession 33%

16 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Estoril 14. · Arouca 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	34	25	7	2	+54	82
2	Porto	33	22	10	1	+54	76
3	Sp Lisbon	33	20	7	6	+29	67
4	Guimaraes	34	18	8	8	+11	62
5	Sp Braga	33	15	9	9	+17	54
6	Maritimo	34	13	11	10	+2	50
7	Rio Ave	34	14	7	13	+2	49
8	Feirense	34	14	6	14	-14	48
9	Boavista	34	10	13	11	-3	43
10	Chaves	33	8	14	11	-4	38
11	Vitoria Setubal	34	10	8	16	-9	38
12	Pacos Ferreira	34	8	12	14	-13	36
13	Belenenses	34	9	9	16	-18	36
14	Estoril	33	9	8	16	-8	35
15	Arouca	33	9	5	19	-22	32
16	Moreirense	33	7	9	17	-17	30
17	Tondela	33	7	8	18	-25	29
18	Nacional	34	4	9	21	-36	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	3	0	+40	45
2	Porto	17	14	3	0	+35	45
3	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	36
4	Maritimo	17	10	5	2	+13	35
5	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+19	34
6	Guimaraes	17	8	5	4	+7	29
7	Rio Ave	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Chaves	17	6	8	3	+4	26
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	6	8	3	+4	26
10	Vitoria Setubal	17	7	3	7	+1	24
11	Feirense	17	7	2	8	-8	23
12	Boavista	17	5	6	6	+3	21
13	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-3	21
14	Arouca	17	6	2	9	-5	20
15	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-5	18
16	Estoril	16	5	2	9	-5	17
17	Moreirense	16	3	7	6	-4	16
18	Nacional	17	2	6	9	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	11	4	2	+14	37
2	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+4	33
3	Porto	16	8	7	1	+19	31
4	Sp Lisbon	17	9	4	4	+9	31
5	Feirense	17	7	4	6	-6	25
6	Boavista	17	5	7	5	-6	22
7	Rio Ave	17	6	3	8	-3	21
8	Sp Braga	16	5	5	6	-2	20
9	Estoril	17	4	6	7	-3	18
10	Belenenses	17	5	3	9	-13	18
11	Maritimo	17	3	6	8	-11	15
12	Vitoria Setubal	17	3	5	9	-10	14
13	Moreirense	17	4	2	11	-13	14
14	Chaves	16	2	6	8	-8	12
15	Arouca	16	3	3	10	-17	12
16	Pacos Ferreira	17	2	4	11	-17	10
17	Nacional	17	2	3	12	-24	9
18	Tondela	17	1	5	11	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.