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La Liga

Referee: Carlos Del Cerro Grande

Girona

T T U T U

1–2

Full-time

Villarreal

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

14%

43%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

43%

71%

Both score Ø 22%

29%

14%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

52% Possession 48%

26 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 20

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 17. · Villarreal 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	1	0	+21	22
2	Real Madrid	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Ath Madrid	8	4	4	0	+8	16
4	Sevilla	8	5	1	2	+5	16
5	Valencia	7	4	3	0	+8	15
6	Betis	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Sociedad	8	4	1	3	+2	13
8	Leganes	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Ath Bilbao	8	3	2	3	+1	11
10	Villarreal	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Levante	8	2	4	2	-2	10
12	Espanol	8	2	3	3	-4	9
13	Celta	7	2	2	3	+2	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	+1	8
15	La Coruna	8	2	2	4	-7	8
16	Eibar	8	2	1	5	-14	7
17	Girona	7	1	3	3	-5	6
18	Las Palmas	7	2	0	5	-8	6
19	Alaves	8	1	0	7	-9	3
20	Malaga	7	0	1	6	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Valencia	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Sevilla	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Betis	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Levante	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+5	7
7	Espanol	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	La Coruna	4	2	0	2	-3	6
11	Real Madrid	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Celta	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Leganes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Girona	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Eibar	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	Getafe	4	1	0	3	+1	3
18	Las Palmas	3	1	0	2	-5	3
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Alaves	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Ath Madrid	5	2	3	0	+5	9
4	Sociedad	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Leganes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Valencia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Getafe	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Ath Bilbao	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Betis	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Celta	3	1	0	2	+2	3
12	Alaves	4	1	0	3	-1	3
13	Las Palmas	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-5	3
15	Eibar	4	1	0	3	-10	3
16	Girona	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	La Coruna	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Levante	3	0	2	1	-4	2
19	Espanol	4	0	2	2	-7	2
20	Malaga	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.