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Premier League
Referee: Michael Oliver
Leicester
S S S T U
3–0
Full-time
Arsenal
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,2
This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 49%
40%
57%
Points per game
1,4
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
51%
57%
Both score Ø 66%
63%
69%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,4
2,0
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%
24 Shots 6
12 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 9
8 Corners 6
2 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Leicester 10. · Arsenal 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 36 28 7 1 +64 91
2 Man City 35 29 2 4 +67 89
3 Tottenham 36 23 1 12 +29 70
4 Chelsea 35 20 7 8 +21 67
5 Arsenal 35 20 6 9 +23 66
6 Man United 35 19 7 9 +13 64
7 Wolves 36 15 9 12 +2 54
8 Everton 36 14 8 14 +6 50
9 Watford 36 14 8 14 -1 50
10 Leicester 35 14 6 15 +1 48
11 West Ham 36 13 7 16 -9 46
12 Crystal Palace 36 12 7 17 -5 43
13 Newcastle 36 11 9 16 -9 42
14 Bournemouth 36 12 6 18 -13 42
15 Burnley 35 11 7 17 -18 40
16 Southampton 36 9 11 16 -17 38
17 Brighton 36 9 8 19 -22 35
18 Cardiff 36 9 4 23 -36 31
19 Fulham 36 7 5 24 -42 26
20 Huddersfield 36 3 5 28 -54 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leicester Arsenal
8′
🟨 Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Wilfred Ndidi 🟨
13′
36′
🟨 Ainsley Maitland-Niles
36′
🟥 Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Half-time 0–0
H. Barnes 🔁
↦ W. Ndidi
46′
46′
🔁 L. Koscielny
↦ A. Iwobi
1–0 Y. Tielemans
J. Maddison
59′
64′
🟨 Sokratis
Ricardo Pereira 🟨
65′
Ben Chilwell 🟨
70′
73′
🔁 M. Guendouzi
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
N. Mendy 🔁
↦ H. Choudhury
79′
79′
🔁 E. Nketiah
↦ A. Lacazette
D. Gray 🔁
↦ M. Albrighton
86′
2–0 J. Vardy
86′
3–0 J. Vardy
Ricardo Pereira
95′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Leicester

4-1-4-1
1 K. Schmeichel G
6 J. Evans D
15 H. Maguire D
14 Ricardo Pereira D
3 B. Chilwell D
11 M. Albrighton M
21 Y. Tielemans M
25 W. Ndidi M
10 J. Maddison M
38 H. Choudhury M
9 J. Vardy F
Bench (7)
19 H. Barnes
24 N. Mendy
7 D. Gray
4 C. Söyüncü
8 K. Iheanacho
12 D. Ward
28 C. Fuchs

Coach: B. Rodgers

Arsenal

4-4-2
19 B. Leno G
5 S. Papastathopoulos D
20 S. Mustafi D
31 S. Kolašinac D
7 H. Mkhitaryan M
34 G. Xhaka M
17 A. Iwobi M
15 A. Maitland-Niles D
11 L. Torreira M
14 P. Aubameyang F
9 A. Lacazette F
Bench (7)
6 L. Koscielny
29 M. Guendouzi
49 E. Nketiah
1 P. Čech
4 Mohamed Elneny
59 J. Willock
27 K. Mavropanos

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Michael Oliver · 163 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.