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Serie A
Referee: Claudio Gavillucci
Palermo
S S
2–2
Full-time
Carpi
T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Palermo Carpi
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
1,0
5,0
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
0,0
3,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-2,0
This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
1,0
5,0
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
0,0
3,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%
13 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 5
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Palermo 6. · Carpi 19. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chievo 3 2 1 0 +6 7
2 Torino 3 2 1 0 +3 7
3 Roma 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Sassuolo 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Inter 2 2 0 0 +2 6
6 Palermo 2 2 0 0 +2 6
7 Fiorentina 3 2 0 1 +1 6
8 Sampdoria 2 1 1 0 +3 4
9 Atalanta 2 1 0 1 +1 3
10 Genoa 3 1 0 2 +0 3
11 Udinese 2 1 0 1 +0 3
12 Milan 2 1 0 1 -1 3
13 Lazio 2 1 0 1 -3 3
14 Verona 3 0 2 1 -2 2
15 Napoli 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Juventus 3 0 1 2 -2 1
17 Bologna 2 0 0 2 -2 0
18 Empoli 2 0 0 2 -3 0
19 Carpi 2 0 0 2 -4 0
20 Frosinone 3 0 0 3 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Palermo Carpi
1–0 O. Hiljemark ⚽
6′
9′
🟨 Riccardo Gagliolo
16′
🟨 Raffaele Bianco
23′
⚽ R. Vitiello 2–0
own goal
Abdelhamid El Kaoutari 🟨
40′
Half-time 2–0
62′
🔁 M. Borriello
↦ J. Mbakogu
U. Đurđević 🔁
↦ A. Gilardino
63′
63′
⚽ M. Borriello 2–1
Ryder Matos
Giancarlo González 🟨
66′
A. Trajkovski 🔁
↦ O. Hiljemark
76′
78′
🔁 Wallace
↦ G. Letizia
82′
🔁 A. Lazzari
↦ R. Bianco
E. Maresca 🔁
↦ M. Jajalo
83′
3–1 U. Đurđević ⚽
A. Lazaar
88′
Roberto Vitiello 🟨
89′
90′
🟨 Gabriel Silva
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Palermo

70 S. Sorrentino G
2 R. Vitiello D
3 A. Rispoli M
12 G. González D
34 A. El Kaoutari D
7 A. Lazaar D
28 M. Jajalo M
20 F. Vázquez M
10 O. Hiljemark M
21 R. Quaison F
11 A. Gilardino F
Bench (11)
99 U. Đurđević
8 A. Trajkovski
25 E. Maresca
4 S. Anđelković
6 E. Goldaniga
9 Matheus Cassini
16 G. Brugman
18 I. Chochev
33 F. Daprelà
53 F. Alastra
91 S. Colombi

Carpi

22 F. Benussi G
5 C. Zaccardo D
3 G. Letizia D
18 I. Bubnjić
6 R. Gagliolo D
8 R. Bianco M
34 Gabriel Silva D
20 L. Lollo M
58 M. Fedele M
7 Ryder Matos F
99 J. Mbakogu F
Bench (12)
12 M. Borriello
2 Wallace
10 A. Lazzari
1 Ž. Brkić
9 K. Wilczek
11 A. Di Gaudio
14 F. Gino
15 K. Lasagna
21 S. Romagnoli
27 V. Belec
29 Raphael Martinho
94 G. Iñíguez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Claudio Gavillucci · 46 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.