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Serie A
Referee: Carmine Russo
Milan
T S T
3–2
Full-time
Palermo
S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Palermo
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,7
This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

54% Possession 46%
18 Shots 13
8 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 3
6 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 13. · Palermo 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 3 3 0 0 +3 9
2 Chievo 3 2 1 0 +6 7
3 Sampdoria 3 2 1 0 +5 7
4 Torino 3 2 1 0 +3 7
5 Roma 3 2 1 0 +3 7
6 Sassuolo 3 2 1 0 +2 7
7 Palermo 3 2 1 0 +2 7
8 Fiorentina 3 2 0 1 +1 6
9 Lazio 3 2 0 1 -1 6
10 Atalanta 3 1 1 1 +1 4
11 Empoli 4 1 1 2 -2 4
12 Genoa 3 1 0 2 +0 3
13 Milan 3 1 0 2 -2 3
14 Udinese 4 1 0 3 -3 3
15 Napoli 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Verona 3 0 2 1 -2 2
17 Juventus 3 0 1 2 -2 1
18 Carpi 3 0 1 2 -4 1
19 Bologna 3 0 0 3 -4 0
20 Frosinone 3 0 0 3 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Palermo
D. Calabria 🔁
↦ I. Abate
18′
1–0 C. Bacca ⚽
G. Bonaventura
21′
32′
⚽ O. Hiljemark 1–1
R. Quaison
2–1 G. Bonaventura ⚽
40′
45′
🟨 Achraf Lazaar
Half-time 2–1
56′
🔁 A. Gilardino
↦ U. Đurđević
66′
🟨 Giancarlo González
M. Balotelli 🔁
↦ Luiz Adriano
70′
70′
🔁 A. Trajkovski
↦ R. Quaison
72′
⚽ O. Hiljemark 2–2
A. Gilardino
3–2 C. Bacca ⚽
J. Kucka
75′
A. Poli 🔁
↦ K. Honda
79′
Riccardo Montolivo 🟨
80′
89′
🔁 L. Rigoni
↦ O. Hiljemark
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Milan

1 Diego López G
17 C. Zapata D
20 I. Abate D
2 M. De Sciglio D
13 A. Romagnoli D
18 R. Montolivo M
28 G. Bonaventura M
27 J. Kucka M
10 K. Honda M
9 Luiz Adriano F
70 C. Bacca F
Bench (12)
96 D. Calabria
45 M. Balotelli
16 A. Poli
4 J. Mauri
8 Suso
11 A. Cerci
15 R. Ely
23 A. Nocerino
32 C. Abbiati
33 Alex
34 N. de Jong
99 G. Donnarumma

Palermo

70 S. Sorrentino G
12 G. González D
34 A. El Kaoutari D
23 Aljaž Struna D
7 A. Lazaar D
28 M. Jajalo M
20 F. Vázquez M
10 O. Hiljemark M
18 I. Chochev M
21 R. Quaison F
99 U. Đurđević F
Bench (12)
11 A. Gilardino
8 A. Trajkovski
27 L. Rigoni
2 R. Vitiello
3 A. Rispoli
4 S. Anđelković
6 E. Goldaniga
9 Matheus Cassini
16 G. Brugman
25 E. Maresca
33 F. Daprelà
91 S. Colombi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Carmine Russo · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
15,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.