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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Bologna

T S S U T

3–2

Full-time

Napoli

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

29%

64%

Points per game

0,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 40%

36%

43%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,9

Conceded

1,4

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

31% Possession 69%

11 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

5 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 18. · Napoli 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	15	10	3	2	+9	33
2	Napoli	14	9	4	1	+17	31
3	Fiorentina	14	9	2	3	+15	29
4	Roma	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Juventus	15	8	3	4	+11	27
6	Sassuolo	14	6	5	3	+3	23
7	Milan	14	7	2	5	+1	23
8	Torino	15	6	4	5	+2	22
9	Atalanta	14	6	3	5	+0	21
10	Lazio	15	6	1	8	-7	19
11	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-3	18
12	Empoli	14	5	3	6	-4	18
13	Chievo	14	4	4	6	+2	16
14	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-2	16
15	Genoa	15	4	4	7	-5	16
16	Palermo	14	4	3	7	-7	15
17	Frosinone	14	4	2	8	-10	14
18	Bologna	14	4	1	9	-6	13
19	Carpi	14	2	3	9	-14	9
20	Verona	14	0	6	8	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+11	19
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+6	19
3	Fiorentina	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Roma	7	5	1	1	+9	16
5	Lazio	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Milan	7	5	1	1	+3	16
7	Torino	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	Sassuolo	7	4	3	0	+4	15
9	Sampdoria	7	4	2	1	+7	14
10	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+5	14
11	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+6	13
12	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+3	13
13	Genoa	7	4	1	2	+2	13
14	Empoli	7	3	1	3	-1	10
15	Chievo	7	2	2	3	+2	8
16	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Palermo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
18	Bologna	7	2	1	4	+0	7
19	Carpi	7	1	2	4	-3	5
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	4	2	1	+3	14
2	Juventus	8	4	1	3	+6	13
3	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Napoli	7	3	3	1	+6	12
5	Roma	8	3	3	2	+3	12
6	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	10
7	Chievo	7	2	2	3	+0	8
8	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-1	8
9	Empoli	7	2	2	3	-3	8
10	Atalanta	8	2	2	4	-6	8
11	Milan	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Palermo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Torino	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Bologna	7	2	0	5	-6	6
15	Carpi	7	1	1	5	-11	4
16	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-7	3
17	Verona	7	0	3	4	-7	3
18	Lazio	7	1	0	6	-13	3
19	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Frosinone	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.