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Ligue 1

Referee: Amaury Delerue

Paris SG

S U S S S

0–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 52%

68%

36%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

48%

Both score Ø 42%

36%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

77% Possession 23%

15 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 3. · Toulouse 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	26	18	5	3	+52	59
2	Nice	26	16	8	2	+22	56
3	Paris SG	25	17	4	4	+32	55
4	Lyon	25	14	1	10	+18	43
5	St Etienne	26	10	9	7	+10	39
6	Marseille	26	11	6	9	+4	39
7	Bordeaux	26	10	9	7	+1	39
8	Guingamp	26	9	7	10	-3	34
9	Toulouse	25	9	6	10	+3	33
10	Rennes	26	8	9	9	-6	33
11	Montpellier	26	8	8	10	-5	32
12	Angers	26	8	6	12	-11	30
13	Nantes	25	8	6	11	-15	30
14	Metz	25	8	6	11	-20	30
15	Lille	26	8	5	13	-8	29
16	Dijon	26	6	9	11	-5	27
17	Nancy	25	7	6	12	-15	27
18	Caen	25	7	4	14	-18	25
19	Bastia	25	5	8	12	-11	23
20	Lorient	26	6	4	16	-25	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	13	11	1	1	+36	34
2	Nice	13	10	3	0	+19	33
3	Marseille	13	9	3	1	+15	30
4	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+22	28
5	Lyon	13	9	0	4	+14	27
6	St Etienne	13	7	5	1	+12	26
7	Toulouse	13	8	1	4	+11	25
8	Montpellier	13	7	4	2	+11	25
9	Rennes	13	7	4	2	+8	25
10	Guingamp	12	7	3	2	+6	24
11	Bordeaux	14	6	4	4	-1	22
12	Dijon	13	5	5	3	+6	20
13	Angers	13	5	5	3	+2	20
14	Caen	12	6	2	4	-4	20
15	Metz	12	5	4	3	-5	19
16	Lille	13	5	2	6	-2	17
17	Lorient	13	5	2	6	-5	17
18	Bastia	13	3	7	3	+1	16
19	Nancy	12	5	1	6	-2	16
20	Nantes	13	4	3	6	-11	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	0	4	+10	27
2	Monaco	13	7	4	2	+16	25
3	Nice	13	6	5	2	+3	23
4	Bordeaux	12	4	5	3	+2	17
5	Lyon	12	5	1	6	+4	16
6	Nantes	12	4	3	5	-4	15
7	St Etienne	13	3	4	6	-2	13
8	Lille	13	3	3	7	-6	12
9	Nancy	13	2	5	6	-13	11
10	Metz	13	3	2	8	-15	11
11	Guingamp	14	2	4	8	-9	10
12	Angers	13	3	1	9	-13	10
13	Marseille	13	2	3	8	-11	9
14	Toulouse	12	1	5	6	-8	8
15	Rennes	13	1	5	7	-14	8
16	Dijon	13	1	4	8	-11	7
17	Bastia	12	2	1	9	-12	7
18	Montpellier	13	1	4	8	-16	7
19	Caen	13	1	2	10	-14	5
20	Lorient	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.