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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Fiorentina

S S S U T

5–4

Full-time

Inter

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,7

4,7

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 49%

44%

53%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

63%

66%

Both score Ø 58%

56%

59%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 10

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Inter 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	26	2	4	+44	80
2	Roma	32	23	3	6	+43	72
3	Napoli	32	21	7	4	+42	70
4	Atalanta	33	19	6	8	+19	63
5	Lazio	32	18	7	7	+18	61
6	Milan	32	17	7	8	+14	58
7	Inter	32	17	5	10	+22	56
8	Fiorentina	32	14	10	8	+9	52
9	Torino	32	11	12	9	+7	45
10	Sampdoria	32	12	9	11	+1	45
11	Udinese	32	11	7	14	-2	40
12	Chievo	32	11	5	16	-14	38
13	Cagliari	32	11	5	16	-17	38
14	Sassuolo	32	10	5	17	-10	35
15	Bologna	33	9	8	16	-18	35
16	Genoa	32	7	9	16	-21	30
17	Empoli	32	6	8	18	-30	26
18	Crotone	32	5	6	21	-26	21
19	Palermo	32	3	7	22	-42	16
20	Pescara	32	2	8	22	-39	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	16	0	0	+32	48
2	Roma	16	14	1	1	+31	43
3	Napoli	17	11	4	2	+20	37
4	Milan	16	11	2	3	+13	35
5	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+12	35
6	Inter	16	10	3	3	+21	33
7	Lazio	16	10	2	4	+11	32
8	Torino	16	8	7	1	+15	31
9	Fiorentina	16	8	7	1	+9	31
10	Sampdoria	16	8	5	3	+8	29
11	Cagliari	16	8	3	5	+1	27
12	Udinese	16	7	3	6	+6	24
13	Chievo	16	6	4	6	-1	22
14	Bologna	16	6	2	8	-6	20
15	Genoa	16	4	7	5	-1	19
16	Sassuolo	16	6	1	9	-5	19
17	Empoli	16	4	4	8	-12	16
18	Crotone	16	4	3	9	-7	15
19	Pescara	16	1	5	10	-17	8
20	Palermo	16	1	3	12	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	15	10	3	2	+22	33
2	Juventus	16	10	2	4	+12	32
3	Roma	16	9	2	5	+12	29
4	Lazio	16	8	5	3	+7	29
5	Atalanta	17	8	4	5	+7	28
6	Milan	16	6	5	5	+1	23
7	Inter	16	7	2	7	+1	23
8	Fiorentina	16	6	3	7	+0	21
9	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-5	16
10	Sampdoria	16	4	4	8	-7	16
11	Udinese	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Chievo	16	5	1	10	-13	16
13	Bologna	17	3	6	8	-12	15
14	Torino	16	3	5	8	-8	14
15	Cagliari	16	3	2	11	-18	11
16	Genoa	16	3	2	11	-20	11
17	Empoli	16	2	4	10	-18	10
18	Palermo	16	2	4	10	-21	10
19	Crotone	16	1	3	12	-19	6
20	Pescara	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.