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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

Ajax

S S S T S

5–0

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 57%

71%

43%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

57%

71%

Both score Ø 43%

14%

71%

Average goals

2,9

3,6

Scored

2,3

2,4

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

23 Shots 5

11 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 3. · AZ Alkmaar 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+27	24
2	Feyenoord	8	5	2	1	+7	17
3	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+12	16
4	Heracles	8	5	1	2	+1	16
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+9	12
6	VVV Venlo	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Den Haag	8	3	2	3	-5	11
8	Heerenveen	8	2	4	2	+2	10
9	Zwolle	8	3	1	4	-2	10
10	Vitesse	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Willem II	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Utrecht	8	2	3	3	-3	9
13	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-4	9
14	FC Emmen	8	2	2	4	-8	8
15	For Sittard	8	1	4	3	-4	7
16	De Graafschap	8	2	1	5	-11	7
17	Groningen	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	NAC Breda	8	1	0	7	-13	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+16	12
2	Heracles	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Ajax	3	2	1	0	+8	7
5	Utrecht	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	3	0	+5	6
7	De Graafschap	5	2	0	3	-4	6
8	Den Haag	4	2	0	2	-5	6
9	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+4	5
10	Excelsior	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	VVV Venlo	3	1	1	1	+2	4
12	Vitesse	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Zwolle	4	1	0	3	-2	3
14	NAC Breda	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	For Sittard	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Heerenveen	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	FC Emmen	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Groningen	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Ajax	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+6	8
4	Zwolle	4	2	1	1	+0	7
5	VVV Venlo	5	2	1	2	-3	7
6	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	FC Emmen	4	2	0	2	-4	6
8	Vitesse	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Den Haag	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Feyenoord	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	For Sittard	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Willem II	4	1	1	2	-5	4
14	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-7	4
15	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Utrecht	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	De Graafschap	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	NAC Breda	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.