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Eredivisie

Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

Heerenveen

T U U U S

4–2

Full-time

Willem II

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 31%

26%

35%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

70%

61%

Both score Ø 68%

78%

57%

Average goals

4,4

3,3

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

64% Possession 36%

11 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Heerenveen 11. · Willem II 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	24	19	4	1	+60	61
2	Ajax	23	18	2	3	+62	56
3	Feyenoord	23	13	4	6	+19	43
4	AZ Alkmaar	23	12	4	7	+19	40
5	Heracles	22	11	2	9	+1	35
6	Vitesse	21	9	6	6	+8	33
7	Utrecht	21	8	6	7	+2	30
8	VVV Venlo	23	8	5	10	-11	29
9	Willem II	23	8	4	11	-7	28
10	Den Haag	24	7	7	10	-15	28
11	Heerenveen	23	6	9	8	-3	27
12	For Sittard	23	7	5	11	-14	26
13	Excelsior	24	7	5	12	-24	26
14	Groningen	21	7	4	10	-2	25
15	Zwolle	23	7	4	12	-12	25
16	FC Emmen	23	6	6	11	-24	24
17	De Graafschap	24	6	4	14	-26	22
18	NAC Breda	24	4	5	15	-33	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	1	0	+40	34
2	Feyenoord	11	10	0	1	+21	30
3	Ajax	11	9	2	0	+41	29
4	Heracles	11	8	0	3	+13	24
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	3	2	+15	21
6	Vitesse	10	6	3	1	+7	21
7	Utrecht	11	5	3	3	+8	18
8	VVV Venlo	11	5	3	3	+6	18
9	For Sittard	12	5	3	4	+4	18
10	Excelsior	13	5	3	5	-8	18
11	De Graafschap	13	5	2	6	+0	17
12	NAC Breda	12	4	3	5	-4	15
13	Den Haag	12	4	3	5	-9	15
14	Groningen	10	4	1	5	+3	13
15	Willem II	11	3	2	6	-4	11
16	Zwolle	12	3	2	7	-7	11
17	FC Emmen	12	2	4	6	-10	10
18	Heerenveen	11	1	5	5	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	12	9	0	3	+21	27
2	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	3	1	+20	27
3	Heerenveen	12	5	4	3	+6	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	6	1	5	+4	19
5	Willem II	12	5	2	5	-3	17
6	Zwolle	11	4	2	5	-5	14
7	FC Emmen	11	4	2	5	-14	14
8	Feyenoord	12	3	4	5	-2	13
9	Den Haag	12	3	4	5	-6	13
10	Vitesse	11	3	3	5	+1	12
11	Groningen	11	3	3	5	-5	12
12	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-6	12
13	Heracles	11	3	2	6	-12	11
14	VVV Venlo	12	3	2	7	-17	11
15	Excelsior	11	2	2	7	-16	8
16	For Sittard	11	2	2	7	-18	8
17	De Graafschap	11	1	2	8	-26	5
18	NAC Breda	12	0	2	10	-29	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.