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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Bastia

S S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

5 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

5 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 16. · Toulouse 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bordeaux	4	3	0	1	+1	9
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Guingamp	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Lyon	4	2	0	2	+1	6
7	Caen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Metz	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+3	5
10	St Etienne	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Marseille	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Rennes	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Dijon	3	1	0	2	+0	3
16	Bastia	3	1	0	2	+0	3
17	Nantes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
18	Angers	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Lorient	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Nancy	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Metz	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Caen	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Bordeaux	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	St Etienne	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Montpellier	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Nice	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Dijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Guingamp	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Lyon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Bastia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Nancy	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Lyon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
3	Bastia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
4	Nice	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Paris SG	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	St Etienne	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Lille	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Dijon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Caen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Nancy	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Angers	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Metz	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.