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Ligue 1
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Marseille
T T S T S
1–1
Full-time
Lyon
U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lyon
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
40%
40%
Points per game
1,2
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 20%
20%
20%
Average goals
3,0
1,6
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
40%
40%
Points per game
1,2
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 20%
20%
20%
Average goals
3,0
1,6
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%
14 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 16. · Lyon 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 6 4 2 0 +7 14
2 Rennes 6 4 1 1 +5 13
3 St Etienne 6 4 1 1 +4 13
4 Caen 6 4 0 2 +0 12
5 Reims 6 3 2 1 +4 11
6 Angers 6 3 2 1 +3 11
7 Guingamp 6 3 0 3 -1 9
8 Lyon 5 2 2 1 +4 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 +1 8
10 Lorient 6 2 2 2 -1 8
11 Monaco 6 2 2 2 -2 8
12 Bordeaux 6 1 4 1 +1 7
13 Lille 6 1 4 1 +0 7
14 Bastia 6 2 1 3 -2 7
15 Nantes 6 2 1 3 -4 7
16 Marseille 5 2 0 3 +5 6
17 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 -2 6
18 Troyes 6 0 3 3 -9 3
19 Montpellier 6 0 1 5 -6 1
20 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 6 0 1 5 -7 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Lyon
Rémy Cabella 🟨
13′
19′
🔁 J. Morel
↦ H. Bedimo
Karim Rekik 🟨
21′
Steve Mandanda 🟨
24′
25′
A. Lacazette 0–1
Romain Alessandrini 🟥
44′
Half-time 0–1
G. N'Koudou 🔁
↦ R. Cabella
46′
Benjamin Mendy 🟨
61′
1–1 K. Rekik
A. Barrada
68′
A. Zambo Anguissa 🔁
↦ A. Barrada
70′
70′
🔁 J. Ferri
↦ Sergi Darder
79′
🟨 Christophe Jallet
79′
🔁 A. Kalulu
↦ C. Beauvue
M. Isla 🔁
↦ Lucas Silva
80′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Marseille

30 S. Mandanda G
3 N. N'Koulou D
4 K. Rekik D
23 B. Mendy D
2 Javi Manquillo D
10 L. Diarra M
11 R. Alessandrini M
19 A. Barrada M
13 R. Cabella M
8 Lucas Silva M
22 M. Batshuayi F
Bench (7)
14 G. N'Koudou
29 A. Zambo Anguissa
18 M. Isla
15 S. Sparagna
16 Y. Pelé
17 B. Sarr
25 P. De Ceglie

Lyon

1 Anthony Lopes G
13 C. Jallet D
5 M. Biševac D
3 H. Bedimo D
23 S. Umtiti D
19 M. Valbuena M
21 M. Gonalons M
14 Sergi Darder M
8 C. Tolisso M
9 C. Beauvue F
10 A. Lacazette F
Bench (7)
15 J. Morel
12 J. Ferri
26 A. Kalulu
17 S. Malbranque
27 M. Cornet
28 A. Mvuemba
30 M. Gorgelin

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ruddy Buquet · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.