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Serie A

Referee: Piero Giacomelli

Cagliari

U T S T S

2–1

Full-time

Crotone

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,7

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 23

9 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 14

1 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 13. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	7	6	0	1	+11	18
2	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+6	13
4	Chievo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
5	Inter	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Roma	6	3	1	2	+6	10
7	Milan	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Bologna	6	3	1	2	-2	10
9	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	-2	9
10	Torino	6	2	2	2	+4	8
11	Genoa	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Fiorentina	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Cagliari	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-6	7
15	Atalanta	6	2	0	4	-3	6
16	Pescara	7	1	3	3	-3	6
17	Sampdoria	6	2	0	4	-3	6
18	Palermo	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Crotone	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Torino	3	2	1	0	+6	7
6	Cagliari	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Chievo	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	Fiorentina	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+4	6
10	Milan	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+0	6
12	Genoa	3	1	2	0	+2	5
13	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Pescara	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Palermo	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	7
3	Inter	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Chievo	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Napoli	3	1	2	0	+3	5
6	Palermo	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Pescara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Milan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Sampdoria	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Torino	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Roma	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-6	1
19	Crotone	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Cagliari	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.