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Eredivisie
Referee: Jeroen Manschot
PSV Eindhoven
S S S S T
6–0
Full-time
Excelsior
T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
3,5
5,0
Scored
2,8
1,8
Conceded
0,7
3,2
Goal diff per game
+2,2
-1,3
This season — Eredivisie · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 61%
93%
29%
Points per game
2,8
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
86%
64%
Both score Ø 54%
43%
64%
Average goals
3,9
4,0
Scored
3,4
1,6
Conceded
0,5
2,4
Goal diff per game
+2,9
-0,9
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

69% Possession 31%
24 Shots 2
8 Shots on target 0
7 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 1
3 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Excelsior 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 14 13 0 1 +40 39
2 Ajax 14 12 1 1 +39 37
3 Feyenoord 14 10 2 2 +14 32
4 Heracles 14 7 2 5 +1 23
5 Utrecht 13 6 4 3 +7 22
6 AZ Alkmaar 15 6 4 5 +5 22
7 VVV Venlo 14 5 4 5 -4 19
8 Heerenveen 14 4 5 5 -4 17
9 Vitesse 12 4 4 4 +1 16
10 For Sittard 15 4 4 7 -3 16
11 Willem II 14 4 4 6 -3 16
12 Excelsior 14 4 4 6 -12 16
13 Den Haag 14 4 3 7 -14 15
14 Zwolle 14 4 2 8 -8 14
15 FC Emmen 14 3 5 6 -13 14
16 Groningen 13 4 1 8 -5 13
17 De Graafschap 14 3 1 10 -21 10
18 NAC Breda 14 2 2 10 -20 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior
1–0 L. de Jong
Angeliño
17′
1–1 R. van der Meer
own goal
34′
35′
🔁 L. Burnet
↦ E. Ómarsson
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 A. Damen
↦ S. Stevens
1–2 J. Mattheij
own goal
52′
54′
🟨 Luigi Bruins
Trent Sainsbury 🟨
60′
64′
🟨 Robin Van der Meer
67′
🟨 Mounir El Hamdaoui
71′
🔁 D. Haspolat
↦ R. Koolwijk
D. Malen 🔁
↦ H. Lozano
72′
M. Sadílek 🔁
↦ J. Hendrix
78′
2–2 D. Malen
É. Gutiérrez
80′
3–2 S. Bergwijn
É. Gutiérrez
89′
4–2 L. de Jong
D. Malen
92′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-3-3
1 J. Zoet G
4 N. Viergever D
20 T. Sainsbury D
6 Angeliño D
22 D. Dumfries D
8 J. Hendrix M
25 É. Gutiérrez M
18 P. Rosario M
9 L. de Jong F
17 S. Bergwijn F
11 H. Lozano F
Bench (10)
14 D. Malen
32 M. Sadílek
2 N. Isimat-Mirin
3 A. Behich
7 G. Pereiro
10 M. Romero
13 E. Room
15 A. Obispo
16 D. Rigo
31 Y. van Osch

Coach: M. van Bommel

Excelsior

4-3-3
20 S. Stevens G
15 J. Mattheij D
5 R. van der Meer D
3 H. Matthys D
10 L. Bruins F
8 R. Koolwijk M
22 Jeffry Fortes D
14 A. Messaoud M
34 M. El Hamdaoui F
24 D. Mahmudov F
9 E. Ómarsson F
Bench (9)
28 L. Burnet
1 A. Damen
21 D. Haspolat
2 S. Horemans
4 T. Oude Kotte
7 A. Hadouir
11 J. Caenepeel
18 M. Edwards
23 M. de Fockert

Coach: A. Poldervaart

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jeroen Manschot · 94 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.