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Eredivisie

Referee: Joey Kooij

De Graafschap

T T S T T

4–1

Full-time

Excelsior

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

De Graafschap Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

22%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

67%

44%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 17

8 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

20 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match De Graafschap 16. · Excelsior 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+33	27
2	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+21	22
3	Feyenoord	9	6	2	1	+10	20
4	Heracles	9	6	1	2	+4	19
5	VVV Venlo	10	4	3	3	+1	15
6	AZ Alkmaar	9	3	3	3	+3	12
7	Excelsior	9	3	3	3	-2	12
8	Utrecht	9	3	3	3	-2	12
9	Den Haag	10	3	3	4	-7	12
10	Willem II	9	2	4	3	-1	10
11	Heerenveen	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	For Sittard	9	2	4	3	-2	10
13	Zwolle	9	3	1	5	-5	10
14	Vitesse	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	FC Emmen	10	2	3	5	-14	9
16	De Graafschap	9	2	1	6	-13	7
17	NAC Breda	10	1	2	7	-13	5
18	Groningen	8	1	1	6	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+22	15
2	Heracles	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	15
4	Ajax	4	3	1	0	+13	10
5	Utrecht	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Excelsior	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	VVV Venlo	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Den Haag	5	2	1	2	-5	7
9	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	3	0	+5	6
10	De Graafschap	5	2	0	3	-4	6
11	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+4	5
12	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Vitesse	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	NAC Breda	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Zwolle	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	FC Emmen	5	0	3	2	-4	3
17	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-8	2
18	Groningen	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+8	12
3	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+6	8
4	VVV Venlo	6	2	2	2	-3	8
5	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	-3	7
6	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	0	3	-2	6
7	FC Emmen	5	2	0	3	-10	6
8	Feyenoord	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	For Sittard	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Vitesse	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Den Haag	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Willem II	5	1	2	2	-5	5
13	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-7	4
15	Groningen	4	1	0	3	-6	3
16	Utrecht	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	-9	1
18	NAC Breda	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.