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Eredivisie
Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie
Heerenveen
S T S T T
3–1
Full-time
Willem II
S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Willem II
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,7
3,2
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
3,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,8
This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 25%
28%
22%
Points per game
1,1
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
61%
61%
Both score Ø 64%
67%
61%
Average goals
3,6
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
2,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%
16 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 5
8 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 7
0 Offside 7
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Heerenveen 12. · Willem II 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 19 15 2 2 +36 47
2 PSV Eindhoven 18 12 5 1 +25 41
3 Feyenoord 18 11 3 4 +17 36
4 Vitesse 19 9 4 6 +19 31
5 Nijmegen 19 9 4 6 +5 31
6 Heracles 17 9 3 5 +4 30
7 Zwolle 17 8 4 5 +7 28
8 Groningen 18 7 6 5 -3 27
9 Utrecht 16 6 5 5 +3 23
10 AZ Alkmaar 18 6 4 8 -4 22
11 Den Haag 18 4 8 6 -2 20
12 Heerenveen 18 5 5 8 -10 20
13 Roda 19 4 7 8 -16 19
14 Willem II 18 4 6 8 -2 18
15 Excelsior 19 4 5 10 -14 17
16 Twente 18 4 4 10 -19 16
17 Cambuur 18 2 7 9 -23 13
18 De Graafschap 19 2 2 15 -23 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Heerenveen Willem II
Lucas Bijker 🟨
7′
Stefano Marzo 🟨
19′
20′
N. van der Velden 0–1
Half-time 0–1
K. Otigba 🔁
↦ L. Bijker
46′
M. Thorsby 🔁
↦ M. te Vrede
46′
61′
🔁 A. Kawaya
↦ G. Hupperts
Sam Larsson 🟨
62′
70′
🔁 L. de Sa
↦ L. Andersen
1–1 A. Zeneli
71′
2–1 K. Otigba
S. Larsson
75′
78′
🔁 R. Braber
↦ R. Haemhouts
L. Slagveer 🔁
↦ H. Veerman
85′
3–1 S. Larsson
85′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Heerenveen

1 E. Mulder G
22 C. Cavlan D
6 S. Marzo D
2 P. van Anholt D
5 L. Bijker D
4 J. van Aken D
17 B. van den Boomen M
13 A. Zeneli F
11 S. Larsson F
9 M. te Vrede F
20 H. Veerman F
Bench (7)
3 K. Otigba
8 M. Thorsby
7 L. Slagveer
14 R. van Koesveld
15 L. Zahovič
25 W. Huizing
33 M. de Fockert

Willem II

1 K. Lamprou G
4 J. Peters D
5 D. Koppers D
15 D. Wuytens D
3 F. Heerkens D
23 N. van der Velden
10 E. Falkenburg F
8 R. Haemhouts M
6 F. Ojo M
18 L. Andersen M
14 G. Hupperts F
Bench (7)
38 A. Kawaya
19 L. de Sa
17 R. Braber
2 R. Ligeon
21 D. Meul
25 N. Kuiper
37 A. Nemec

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Danny Desmond Makkelie · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.