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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro
1–1
Full-time
Maritimo
T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Maritimo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
2,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,8
-0,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches
Win Ø 30%
30%
30%
Points per game
1,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
70%
50%
Both score Ø 60%
60%
60%
Average goals
3,4
3,3
Scored
1,6
1,4
Conceded
1,9
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%
15 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 5
5 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 9. · Maritimo 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 21 17 1 3 +45 52
2 Sp Lisbon 20 16 3 1 +29 51
3 Porto 20 14 4 2 +28 46
4 Sp Braga 20 10 6 4 +19 36
5 Pacos Ferreira 20 8 6 6 +5 30
6 Guimaraes 20 8 6 6 -1 30
7 Rio Ave 20 8 4 8 -2 28
8 Arouca 20 5 10 5 +0 25
9 Vitoria Setubal 20 6 7 7 -6 25
10 Belenenses 21 6 7 8 -19 25
11 Estoril 20 6 5 9 -6 23
12 U. Madeira 20 6 5 9 -10 23
13 Maritimo 20 6 3 11 -12 21
14 Nacional 20 5 5 10 -8 20
15 Moreirense 20 5 5 10 -12 20
16 Boavista 20 4 5 11 -13 17
17 Academica 20 4 5 11 -17 17
18 Tondela 20 2 3 15 -20 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vitoria Setubal Maritimo
4′
🟨 Ruben Ferreira
Tiago Valente 🟨
35′
1–0 André Claro
42′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Tiago Rodrigues
↦ Alex Soares
63′
🟨 Maurício Antônio
Ricardo Dani 🔁
↦ M. Makuszewski
69′
Frederico Venancio 🟨
71′
71′
Fransérgio 1–1
73′
🔁 D. Djoussé
↦ Patrick
A. Meyong 🔁
↦ Salim Cissé
79′
85′
🔁 Fernando Ferreira
↦ Éber
Hassan 🔁
↦ André Horta
88′
89′
🟨 Fernando Ferreira
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Vitoria Setubal

82 Ricardo G
2 Tiago Valente
22 William Alves D
21 Nuno Pinto D
3 Frederico Venâncio D
6 Fabio Pacheco M
17 M. Makuszewski F
77 André Horta M
18 André Claro F
11 Costinha M
92 Salim Cissé F
Bench (7)
66 Ricardo Dani
30 A. Meyong
9 Hassan
1 L. Raeder
20 T. Gorupec
90 Ruca
44 Miguel Lourenço

Maritimo

78 R. Salin
26 Romário
2 João Diogo D
41 Rúben Ferreira D
91 Patrick D
62 Maurício
35 Fransérgio M
11 Éber M
7 Alex Soares M
12 Edgar Costa F
9 Dyego Sousa F
Bench (7)
29 Tiago Rodrigues
60 D. Djoussé
14 Fernando Ferreira
80 A. Haghighi
22 U. Diallo
90 B. Diawara
21 Briguel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.