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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge Manuel Oliveira

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 60%

100%

20%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,6

1,6

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%

11 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Tondela 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+10	15
3	Maritimo	6	5	0	1	+4	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+8	13
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Feirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-6	7
8	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	+0	6
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
10	Boavista	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Sp Braga	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Estoril	5	2	0	3	-3	6
13	Tondela	5	1	2	2	+1	5
14	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Aves	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Belenenses	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Chaves	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-3	6
8	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Aves	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Feirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-4	3
11	Aves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Boavista	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Portimonense	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.