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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Aves

T T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Santa Clara

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Santa Clara

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

14%

43%

Points per game

0,6

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

43%

71%

Both score Ø 43%

29%

57%

Average goals

2,4

3,6

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 9

4 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aves 18. · Santa Clara 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	5	3	0	+9	18
2	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Porto	7	5	0	2	+10	15
4	Rio Ave	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Sp Lisbon	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Santa Clara	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	+1	11
8	Maritimo	7	3	1	3	-3	10
9	Portimonense	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Feirense	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
12	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-3	7
13	Belenenses	7	1	4	2	-3	7
14	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-5	7
15	Moreirense	7	2	1	4	-8	7
16	Tondela	7	1	3	3	-1	6
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Aves	7	1	1	5	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Rio Ave	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+2	6
10	Feirense	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Aves	3	1	1	1	+2	4
14	Chaves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Boavista	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Guimaraes	4	2	0	2	+1	6
5	Belenenses	4	1	3	0	+1	6
6	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
7	Nacional	4	1	2	1	-1	5
8	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Sp Lisbon	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Portimonense	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Chaves	4	1	0	3	-6	3
15	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-7	3
16	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Aves	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.