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Premier League

Referee: J Moss

Everton

T T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,7

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 50%

45%

55%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 59%

73%

45%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%

9 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 10. · Chelsea 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	7	3	1	+14	24
2	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+9	24
3	Chelsea	11	6	4	1	+14	22
4	Leicester	11	7	0	4	+6	21
5	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+5	20
6	Southampton	11	6	2	3	+4	20
7	Man United	11	6	2	3	+2	20
8	Man City	11	5	4	2	+6	19
9	Aston Villa	10	6	0	4	+8	18
10	Everton	11	5	2	4	+2	17
11	Newcastle	11	5	2	4	-2	17
12	Wolves	12	5	2	5	-5	17
13	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+1	16
14	Leeds	12	4	2	6	-5	14
15	Arsenal	11	4	1	6	-4	13
16	Brighton	11	2	4	5	-3	10
17	Fulham	11	2	1	8	-10	7
18	Burnley	10	1	3	6	-13	6
19	West Brom	12	1	3	8	-16	6
20	Sheffield United	11	0	1	10	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+7	11
3	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Man City	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Southampton	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	-4	9
8	Wolves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Everton	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Aston Villa	5	2	0	3	+1	6
12	Leicester	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Arsenal	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Leeds	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	West Brom	6	1	2	3	-7	5
16	Man United	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Brighton	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Fulham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+8	15
3	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+10	13
4	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+7	12
5	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+7	11
6	Southampton	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Man City	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Crystal Palace	6	3	0	3	+0	9
11	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
13	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
15	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-3	6
17	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-9	2
19	West Brom	6	0	1	5	-9	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.