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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Burnley

T T T U T

0–3

Full-time

Chelsea

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

40%

67%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

2,4

3,7

Scored

0,6

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

36% Possession 64%

5 Shots 14

0 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 18. · Chelsea 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	6	4	1	1	+5	13
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+1	13
3	Wolves	7	4	1	2	+0	13
4	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+7	12
5	Leicester	6	4	0	2	+5	12
6	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+8	11
7	Man City	6	3	2	1	+1	11
8	Leeds	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Southampton	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	10
11	Chelsea	6	2	3	1	+4	9
12	Arsenal	6	3	0	3	+1	9
13	West Ham	6	2	2	2	+4	8
14	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Man United	5	2	1	2	-3	7
16	Brighton	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	West Brom	6	0	3	3	-8	3
18	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-6	1
19	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-7	1
20	Fulham	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Everton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	4
8	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Man City	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	West Brom	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Man United	3	0	1	2	-7	1
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Fulham	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Man City	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Man United	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Leeds	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Everton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
8	Wolves	3	2	0	1	-1	6
9	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Chelsea	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
13	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-3	4
16	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	+0	3
17	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.