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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Leeds

S T S S T

0–1

Full-time

Brighton

U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,5

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 26%

41%

11%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

65%

56%

Both score Ø 60%

53%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

7 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 12. · Brighton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	17	11	3	3	+10	36
2	Liverpool	17	9	6	2	+16	33
3	Man City	16	9	5	2	+12	32
4	Leicester	17	10	2	5	+10	32
5	Everton	17	10	2	5	+7	32
6	Tottenham	17	8	6	3	+14	30
7	Southampton	17	8	5	4	+7	29
8	Aston Villa	15	8	2	5	+13	26
9	Chelsea	17	7	5	5	+11	26
10	West Ham	17	7	5	5	+3	26
11	Arsenal	18	7	3	8	+1	24
12	Leeds	17	7	2	8	-3	23
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	-7	23
14	Wolves	19	6	4	9	-8	22
15	Newcastle	17	5	4	8	-9	19
16	Burnley	16	4	4	8	-12	16
17	Brighton	18	2	8	8	-8	14
18	Fulham	16	2	6	8	-10	12
19	West Brom	18	2	5	11	-27	11
20	Sheffield United	18	1	2	15	-20	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+13	22
2	Man City	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Southampton	9	5	1	3	+5	16
4	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+8	15
5	Tottenham	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Man United	9	4	2	3	-1	14
7	Everton	8	4	1	3	+3	13
8	West Ham	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-1	12
10	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-4	12
11	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Arsenal	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Newcastle	9	3	2	4	-5	11
14	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+4	10
15	Leicester	8	3	1	4	-1	10
16	Burnley	8	3	1	4	-3	10
17	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	Brighton	9	0	5	4	-5	5
19	West Brom	9	1	2	6	-19	5
20	Sheffield United	9	1	1	7	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Leicester	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Everton	9	6	1	2	+4	19
4	Aston Villa	8	5	1	2	+9	16
5	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+9	15
6	Man City	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Arsenal	9	4	1	4	+3	13
9	Southampton	8	3	4	1	+2	13
10	Leeds	9	4	0	5	-3	12
11	Liverpool	9	2	5	2	+3	11
12	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+3	11
13	Crystal Palace	9	3	2	4	-3	11
14	Wolves	9	3	1	5	-7	10
15	Brighton	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Newcastle	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	West Brom	9	1	3	5	-8	6
19	Burnley	8	1	3	4	-9	6
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.