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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Dortmund

T S T S S

1–1

Full-time

Mainz

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

60%

Points per game

1,9

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

67%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

73% Possession 27%

17 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

1 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 5. · Mainz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	3	2	+22	33
2	RB Leipzig	15	9	4	2	+14	31
3	Leverkusen	16	8	5	3	+14	29
4	Union Berlin	16	7	7	2	+12	28
5	Dortmund	15	9	1	5	+12	28
6	Wolfsburg	15	6	7	2	+5	25
7	M'gladbach	15	6	6	3	+4	24
8	Freiburg	15	6	5	4	+4	23
9	Ein Frankfurt	15	5	8	2	+2	23
10	Stuttgart	15	5	6	4	+8	21
11	Augsburg	15	5	4	6	-6	19
12	Hertha	15	4	4	7	-2	16
13	Werder Bremen	15	3	6	6	-7	15
14	Hoffenheim	15	4	3	8	-8	15
15	Bielefeld	15	4	1	10	-14	13
16	FC Koln	15	2	5	8	-14	11
17	Schalke 04	15	1	4	10	-27	7
18	Mainz	15	1	3	11	-19	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	8	6	1	1	+11	19
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+18	17
3	Wolfsburg	7	5	2	0	+6	17
4	Union Berlin	9	4	4	1	+9	16
5	M'gladbach	8	3	4	1	+4	13
6	Freiburg	8	3	3	2	+6	12
7	Dortmund	7	4	0	3	+6	12
8	Leverkusen	7	3	3	1	+5	12
9	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	5	0	+2	11
10	Bielefeld	8	3	0	5	-5	9
11	Hertha	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Augsburg	8	2	2	4	-6	8
13	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-1	7
14	Schalke 04	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Werder Bremen	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Stuttgart	7	0	4	3	-4	4
17	Mainz	8	0	2	6	-9	2
18	FC Koln	8	0	2	6	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	8	5	2	1	+12	17
2	Leverkusen	9	5	2	2	+9	17
3	Dortmund	8	5	1	2	+6	16
4	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+4	16
5	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	RB Leipzig	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	M'gladbach	7	3	2	2	+0	11
9	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Freiburg	7	3	2	2	-2	11
11	Werder Bremen	8	2	4	2	-1	10
12	FC Koln	7	2	3	2	-4	9
13	Hertha	8	2	2	4	+0	8
14	Wolfsburg	8	1	5	2	-1	8
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-7	8
16	Bielefeld	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-10	4
18	Schalke 04	7	0	2	5	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.