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La Liga
Referee: Carlos Del Cerro
Ath Bilbao
T S T U S
1–1
Full-time
Villarreal
U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Villarreal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
2,3
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,5
This season — La Liga · 22/23 matches
Win Ø 36%
36%
35%
Points per game
1,3
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
45%
48%
Both score Ø 58%
50%
65%
Average goals
2,6
2,4
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%
18 Shots 3
8 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
6 Corners 0
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Bilbao 11. · Villarreal 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ath Madrid 23 17 4 2 +29 55
2 Real Madrid 24 16 4 4 +23 52
3 Barcelona 23 14 5 4 +28 47
4 Sevilla 22 14 3 5 +16 45
5 Sociedad 24 11 8 5 +21 41
6 Villarreal 23 8 12 3 +8 36
7 Betis 24 11 3 10 -6 36
8 Levante 24 7 10 7 +1 31
9 Granada 24 8 6 10 -12 30
10 Celta 24 7 8 9 -7 29
11 Ath Bilbao 22 8 4 10 +6 28
12 Valencia 24 6 9 9 -2 27
13 Osasuna 23 6 7 10 -9 25
14 Cadiz 24 6 7 11 -19 25
15 Getafe 24 6 6 12 -13 24
16 Alaves 24 5 7 12 -18 22
17 Eibar 24 4 9 11 -8 21
18 Elche 22 4 9 9 -11 21
19 Valladolid 24 4 9 11 -13 21
20 Huesca 24 3 10 11 -14 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Bilbao Villarreal
16′
Gerard Moreno 0–1
40′
🟨 Étienne Capoue
1–1 Álex Berenguer
44′
Half-time 1–1
Dani García 🟨
53′
55′
🟨 Juan Foyth
62′
🔁 Yeremi Pino
↦ Paco Alcácer
62′
🔁 Fer Niño
↦ Manu Trigueros
70′
🔁 P. Estupiñán
↦ Moi Gómez
Capa 🔁
↦ Álex Berenguer
78′
Asier Villalibre 🔁
↦ Raúl García
83′
85′
🔁 S. Chukwueze
↦ Pedraza
85′
🔁 Jaume Costa
↦ E. Capoue
Unai López 🟨
86′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-4-2
1 Unai Simón G
18 De Marcos D
17 Yuri D
4 Íñigo Martínez D
5 Yeray D
22 Raúl García F
14 Dani García M
8 Unai López M
10 Muniain M
9 Williams F
12 Álex Berenguer M
Bench (12)
21 Capa
20 Asier Villalibre
24 Balenziaga
2 Jon Morcillo
7 Ibai Gómez
26 Iñigo Vicente
23 Peru Nolaskoain
15 Lekue
19 Oier Zarraga
27 Unai Vencedor
16 Oihan Sancet
13 Jokin Ezkieta

Coach: Marcelino

Villarreal

4-4-2
1 Asenjo G
3 Albiol D
4 Pau Torres D
8 J. Foyth D
25 E. Capoue M
5 Dani Parejo M
23 Moi Gómez M
14 Manu Trigueros M
24 Pedraza D
17 Paco Alcácer F
7 Gerard Moreno F
Bench (11)
30 Yeremi Pino
34 Fer Niño
15 P. Estupiñán
11 S. Chukwueze
21 Jaume Costa
6 Ramiro Funes Mori
9 C. Bacca
44 A. Rațiu
12 Dani Raba
13 G. Rulli
32 Álex Baena

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,53
U ✓
3,11
B
3,03
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,32
U2,5 ✓
1,61
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Carlos Del Cerro · 93 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.