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2. Bundesliga

Referee: M Bacher

Holstein Kiel

T U U U S

2–0

Full-time

Paderborn

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

29%

59%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

41%

59%

Both score Ø 59%

59%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

7 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 11

0 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 11. · Paderborn 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	18	12	2	4	+12	+5.0	38
2	Elversberg	18	10	4	4	+15	-3.7	34
3	Darmstadt	17	9	6	2	+12	+7.0	33
4	Paderborn	17	10	3	4	+10	+7.3	33
5	Hannover	17	8	5	4	+8	+4.9	29
6	Hertha	18	8	5	5	+5	-1.9	29
7	Kaiserslautern	17	8	3	6	+8	+1.3	27
8	Nurnberg	18	7	4	7	-3	-0.0	25
9	Karlsruhe	18	7	4	7	-6	-14.2	25
10	Bochum	17	6	3	8	+1	+4.4	21
11	Holstein Kiel	17	5	5	7	-2	-6.3	20
12	Magdeburg	18	6	2	10	-5	+6.1	20
13	Preußen Münster	18	5	5	8	-6	-0.4	20
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	18	6	2	10	-11	-3.5	20
15	Braunschweig	18	6	2	10	-12	-1.0	20
16	Bielefeld	18	5	4	9	+2	-0.4	19
17	Dresden	18	4	4	10	-8	+0.8	16
18	Greuther Furth	18	4	3	11	-20	-5.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	9	6	3	0	+10	+8.7	21
2	Schalke 04	8	7	0	1	+6	+2.5	21
3	Kaiserslautern	9	6	1	2	+10	+4.3	19
4	Elversberg	8	5	3	0	+10	-1.4	18
5	Nurnberg	10	5	3	2	+2	+0.4	18
6	Paderborn	9	5	1	3	+2	+3.1	16
7	Karlsruhe	8	5	0	3	+0	-6.4	15
8	Hertha	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.3	15
9	Preußen Münster	10	3	5	2	+1	+0.4	14
10	Bielefeld	9	4	1	4	+7	+6.0	13
11	Bochum	8	4	1	3	+3	+6.6	13
12	Hannover	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.3	13
13	Holstein Kiel	8	3	2	3	+1	-0.6	11
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	2	5	-6	-1.5	11
15	Braunschweig	10	3	2	5	-8	+1.1	11
16	Dresden	9	2	2	5	-2	+4.6	8
17	Greuther Furth	8	2	2	4	-9	-2.2	8
18	Magdeburg	8	2	1	5	-4	+4.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paderborn	8	5	2	1	+8	+4.1	17
2	Schalke 04	10	5	2	3	+6	+2.5	17
3	Hannover	9	4	4	1	+7	+0.6	16
4	Elversberg	10	5	1	4	+5	-2.3	16
5	Hertha	8	4	2	2	+6	-2.3	14
6	Magdeburg	10	4	1	5	-1	+2.1	13
7	Darmstadt	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.7	12
8	Karlsruhe	10	2	4	4	-6	-7.8	10
9	Holstein Kiel	9	2	3	4	-3	-5.6	9
10	Braunschweig	8	3	0	5	-4	-2.2	9
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	3	0	5	-5	-2.0	9
12	Bochum	9	2	2	5	-2	-2.1	8
13	Kaiserslautern	8	2	2	4	-2	-3.0	8
14	Dresden	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.8	8
15	Nurnberg	8	2	1	5	-5	-0.4	7
16	Greuther Furth	10	2	1	7	-11	-3.2	7
17	Bielefeld	9	1	3	5	-5	-6.3	6
18	Preußen Münster	8	2	0	6	-7	-0.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.