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2. Bundesliga

Referee: F Bickel

Karlsruhe

T U S U T

1–1

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Karlsruhe Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

70%

55%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

55%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,36 xG 1,84

56% Possession 44%

6 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Karlsruhe 10. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	21	11	8	2	+18	+7.7	41
2	Schalke 04	21	12	4	5	+10	+5.5	40
3	Paderborn	21	12	3	6	+9	+10.5	39
4	Elversberg	21	11	5	5	+14	-0.2	38
5	Hannover	20	10	5	5	+8	+7.1	35
6	Hertha	21	9	7	5	+8	-3.1	34
7	Kaiserslautern	21	9	4	8	+4	-1.9	31
8	Bochum	21	7	6	8	+3	+3.7	27
9	Nurnberg	21	7	5	9	-6	+1.6	26
10	Karlsruhe	20	7	5	8	-7	-14.4	26
11	Holstein Kiel	20	6	6	8	-1	-7.2	24
12	Braunschweig	20	7	3	10	-11	+1.2	24
13	Magdeburg	21	7	2	12	-6	+5.1	23
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	20	7	2	11	-11	-4.8	23
15	Preußen Münster	21	5	7	9	-7	-5.0	22
16	Bielefeld	20	5	6	9	+2	+0.6	21
17	Dresden	21	5	6	10	-7	+0.3	21
18	Greuther Furth	21	5	4	12	-20	-6.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	11	8	3	0	+16	+8.5	27
2	Schalke 04	10	7	2	1	+6	+3.2	23
3	Kaiserslautern	11	7	1	3	+10	+1.7	22
4	Paderborn	11	7	1	3	+4	+6.3	22
5	Elversberg	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.4	19
6	Nurnberg	11	5	4	2	+2	+1.7	19
7	Bochum	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.8	17
8	Hannover	9	5	1	3	+2	+5.6	16
9	Karlsruhe	9	5	1	3	+0	-6.2	16
10	Hertha	11	4	4	3	-1	-0.6	16
11	Preußen Münster	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
12	Bielefeld	10	4	2	4	+7	+6.4	14
13	Holstein Kiel	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.2	14
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	4	2	5	-5	-1.5	14
15	Braunschweig	11	4	2	5	-7	+1.5	14
16	Dresden	10	2	3	5	-2	+4.1	9
17	Greuther Furth	10	2	3	5	-10	-4.0	9
18	Magdeburg	10	2	1	7	-6	+3.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	11	6	1	4	+7	+0.2	19
2	Hannover	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.6	19
3	Hertha	10	5	3	2	+9	-2.5	18
4	Paderborn	10	5	2	3	+5	+4.2	17
5	Schalke 04	11	5	2	4	+4	+2.3	17
6	Magdeburg	11	5	1	5	+0	+2.1	16
7	Darmstadt	10	3	5	2	+2	-0.8	14
8	Dresden	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.8	12
9	Bochum	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.1	10
10	Holstein Kiel	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.1	10
11	Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.4	10
12	Karlsruhe	11	2	4	5	-7	-8.2	10
13	Greuther Furth	11	3	1	7	-10	-2.7	10
14	Kaiserslautern	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.6	9
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	0	6	-6	-3.2	9
16	Bielefeld	10	1	4	5	-5	-5.8	7
17	Preußen Münster	10	2	1	7	-8	-5.4	7
18	Nurnberg	10	2	1	7	-8	-0.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.