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Bundesliga

Referee: J Spurny

Sturm Graz

S T T T S

1–0

Full-time

Ried

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Ried

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 50%

53%

47%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

59%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

59%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,71 xG 0,54

54% Possession 46%

7 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sturm Graz 4. · Ried 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	18	9	5	4	+13	+4.9	32
2	LASK	18	10	2	6	+4	+0.2	32
3	Austria Vienna	18	9	2	7	+1	-0.6	29
4	Sturm Graz	17	9	1	7	+4	+3.5	28
5	Hartberg	18	7	6	5	+4	-2.5	27
6	Ried	17	8	2	7	+0	+0.9	26
7	SK Rapid	18	7	5	6	+0	-0.1	26
8	Wolfsberger AC	18	7	4	7	+4	-4.0	25
9	Altach	18	6	6	6	+0	-1.0	24
10	Tirol	18	5	6	7	-3	+4.6	21
11	Grazer AK	18	3	7	8	-12	-1.5	16
12	BW Linz	18	3	2	13	-15	-4.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	9	6	1	2	+5	-0.8	19
2	Salzburg	10	5	2	3	+8	+3.2	17
3	Altach	9	4	4	1	+3	+2.7	16
4	Wolfsberger AC	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.4	14
5	Ried	9	4	2	3	+1	+1.7	14
6	Austria Vienna	9	4	1	4	-3	+0.8	13
7	Tirol	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.3	11
8	Hartberg	8	3	2	3	+1	-0.4	11
9	SK Rapid	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.3	11
10	Grazer AK	9	2	4	3	-2	+0.9	10
11	BW Linz	9	2	1	6	-4	-1.6	7
12	Sturm Graz	8	2	1	5	-6	+1.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	9	7	0	2	+10	+2.4	21
2	Austria Vienna	9	5	1	3	+4	-1.4	16
3	Hartberg	10	4	4	2	+3	-2.1	16
4	Salzburg	8	4	3	1	+5	+1.8	15
5	SK Rapid	9	4	3	2	+1	-0.4	15
6	LASK	9	4	1	4	-1	+1.0	13
7	Ried	8	4	0	4	-1	-0.8	12
8	Wolfsberger AC	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.6	11
9	Tirol	10	2	4	4	-4	+2.4	10
10	Altach	9	2	2	5	-3	-3.7	8
11	Grazer AK	9	1	3	5	-10	-2.4	6
12	BW Linz	9	1	1	7	-11	-2.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.