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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

AZ Alkmaar

T U S T S

1–1

Full-time

Ajax

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 44%

43%

45%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

67%

65%

Both score Ø 73%

71%

75%

Average goals

3,4

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,68 xG 0,97

38% Possession 62%

13 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 7. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	21	18	2	1	+39	+20.9	56
2	Feyenoord	22	13	3	6	+20	+18.2	42
3	Nijmegen	21	12	5	4	+21	+8.2	41
4	Sparta Rotterdam	22	11	3	8	-7	-2.5	36
5	Ajax	20	9	8	3	+11	+6.9	35
6	Twente	22	8	10	4	+12	+23.6	34
7	AZ Alkmaar	21	9	5	7	+1	+13.3	32
8	Groningen	20	9	4	7	+4	+11.3	31
9	For Sittard	22	7	5	10	-5	-14.1	26
10	Excelsior	22	7	5	10	-13	-13.3	26
11	Zwolle	22	7	5	10	-14	-15.9	26
12	Heerenveen	20	6	6	8	-4	+9.8	24
13	Utrecht	20	6	5	9	+2	-2.3	23
14	Go Ahead Eagles	20	4	10	6	-3	-12.6	22
15	Volendam	22	5	6	11	-13	-18.4	21
16	Heracles	22	5	2	15	-26	-15.4	17
17	Telstar	21	3	7	11	-12	-9.8	16
18	NAC Breda	22	3	7	12	-13	-7.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	8	2	1	+20	+13.2	26
2	Nijmegen	10	7	2	1	+15	+8.6	23
3	Feyenoord	11	7	1	3	+11	+11.2	22
4	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+10.3	20
5	Twente	11	5	4	2	+7	+14.6	19
6	Zwolle	11	6	1	4	+0	-1.2	19
7	For Sittard	11	5	3	3	+2	-1.1	18
8	Sparta Rotterdam	11	5	2	4	-5	-0.9	17
9	Utrecht	10	5	1	4	+7	+3.7	16
10	Volendam	11	4	4	3	+3	-1.4	16
11	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	4	2	+2	+7.8	16
12	Groningen	10	4	3	3	+6	+9.3	15
13	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.6	14
14	Heerenveen	11	3	5	3	-1	+8.9	14
15	Excelsior	11	4	2	5	-2	-5.3	14
16	Heracles	10	4	1	5	-4	-2.0	13
17	NAC Breda	12	3	3	6	-4	+2.4	12
18	Telstar	11	1	4	6	-6	-1.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+19	+7.8	30
2	Feyenoord	11	6	2	3	+9	+7.0	20
3	Sparta Rotterdam	11	6	1	4	-2	-1.6	19
4	Nijmegen	11	5	3	3	+6	-0.4	18
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	1	5	-1	+5.5	16
6	Groningen	10	5	1	4	-2	+2.0	16
7	Twente	11	3	6	2	+5	+8.9	15
8	Ajax	10	3	6	1	+3	-3.4	15
9	Excelsior	11	3	3	5	-11	-8.0	12
10	Heerenveen	9	3	1	5	-3	+0.9	10
11	Telstar	10	2	3	5	-6	-8.7	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	11	1	5	5	-6	-13.1	8
13	For Sittard	11	2	2	7	-7	-13.0	8
14	Utrecht	10	1	4	5	-5	-6.0	7
15	Zwolle	11	1	4	6	-14	-14.7	7
16	Volendam	11	1	2	8	-16	-17.1	5
17	NAC Breda	10	0	4	6	-9	-10.3	4
18	Heracles	12	1	1	10	-22	-13.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.