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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Bristol City

T T U U U

4–2

Full-time

Birmingham

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 29%

27%

31%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

46%

42%

Both score Ø 52%

58%

46%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

6 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 20. · Birmingham 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	26	16	8	2	+27	56
2	Sheffield United	26	15	6	5	+21	51
3	Blackburn	27	14	0	13	-4	42
4	Watford	26	11	7	8	+3	40
5	Middlesbrough	25	11	6	8	+9	39
6	Millwall	25	11	6	8	+6	39
7	West Brom	26	10	8	8	+8	38
8	Luton	24	10	8	6	+5	38
9	Sunderland	25	10	7	8	+9	37
10	Preston	26	10	7	9	-2	37
11	Norwich	26	10	6	10	+3	36
12	QPR	26	10	6	10	-3	36
13	Reading	26	11	3	12	-7	36
14	Swansea	26	9	8	9	+0	35
15	Hull	26	9	6	11	-10	33
16	Coventry	24	8	8	8	+0	32
17	Birmingham	26	8	8	10	-2	32
18	Stoke	26	8	6	12	-6	30
19	Rotherham	27	7	9	11	-7	30
20	Bristol City	26	7	8	11	-3	29
21	Cardiff	26	7	7	12	-9	28
22	Blackpool	26	6	8	12	-10	26
23	Huddersfield	25	7	4	14	-8	25
24	Wigan	26	6	6	14	-20	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	13	9	4	0	+18	31
2	Millwall	13	8	3	2	+12	27
3	Blackburn	13	9	0	4	+7	27
4	Reading	12	8	1	3	+6	25
5	Sheffield United	12	7	3	2	+14	24
6	West Brom	14	6	4	4	+6	22
7	Watford	12	6	2	4	+5	20
8	Middlesbrough	12	5	5	2	+5	20
9	Swansea	13	6	2	5	+4	20
10	Rotherham	13	5	4	4	+7	19
11	Coventry	12	5	4	3	+4	19
12	Norwich	14	5	4	5	+3	19
13	QPR	13	5	3	5	-1	18
14	Birmingham	14	4	5	5	+1	17
15	Huddersfield	14	5	2	7	-1	17
16	Sunderland	12	4	4	4	+3	16
17	Cardiff	13	4	4	5	-1	16
18	Luton	11	3	6	2	+3	15
19	Bristol City	13	4	3	6	+0	15
20	Hull	13	4	2	7	-9	14
21	Preston	13	3	4	6	-6	13
22	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	-5	12
23	Stoke	13	3	3	7	-5	12
24	Wigan	14	2	3	9	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	14	8	3	3	+7	27
2	Burnley	13	7	4	2	+9	25
3	Preston	13	7	3	3	+4	24
4	Luton	13	7	2	4	+2	23
5	Sunderland	13	6	3	4	+6	21
6	Watford	14	5	5	4	-2	20
7	Middlesbrough	13	6	1	6	+4	19
8	Hull	13	5	4	4	-1	19
9	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-1	18
10	QPR	13	5	3	5	-2	18
11	Norwich	12	5	2	5	+0	17
12	West Brom	12	4	4	4	+2	16
13	Wigan	12	4	3	5	-3	15
14	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-3	15
15	Swansea	13	3	6	4	-4	15
16	Blackburn	14	5	0	9	-11	15
17	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-3	14
18	Blackpool	13	3	5	5	-5	14
19	Coventry	12	3	4	5	-4	13
20	Millwall	12	3	3	6	-6	12
21	Cardiff	13	3	3	7	-8	12
22	Reading	14	3	2	9	-13	11
23	Rotherham	14	2	5	7	-14	11
24	Huddersfield	11	2	2	7	-7	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.