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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Marseille

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Lorient

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

56%

72%

Both score Ø 67%

56%

78%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Lorient 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	15	2	1	+35	47
2	Lens	19	13	5	1	+19	44
3	Marseille	18	12	3	3	+21	39
4	Rennes	18	10	4	4	+15	34
5	Monaco	18	10	4	4	+10	34
6	Lorient	18	9	5	4	+4	32
7	Lille	18	9	4	5	+6	31
8	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+6	25
9	Clermont	18	7	4	7	-4	25
10	Nice	18	6	6	6	+2	24
11	Reims	18	5	9	4	-2	24
12	Toulouse	18	6	4	8	-5	22
13	Troyes	18	4	6	8	-6	18
14	Nantes	18	3	9	6	-6	18
15	Montpellier	18	5	2	11	-9	17
16	Ajaccio	18	4	3	11	-12	15
17	Brest	18	3	5	10	-15	14
18	Auxerre	19	3	4	12	-25	13
19	Strasbourg	18	1	9	8	-11	12
20	Angers	18	2	2	14	-23	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	10	10	0	0	+15	30
2	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+15	25
3	Rennes	9	8	0	1	+16	24
4	Marseille	9	6	1	2	+10	19
5	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+9	17
6	Lille	9	5	2	2	+0	17
7	Toulouse	9	4	3	2	+1	15
8	Nantes	9	3	5	1	+3	14
9	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Lorient	9	4	2	3	+1	14
11	Clermont	9	4	1	4	-6	13
12	Nice	9	3	3	3	+2	12
13	Reims	8	3	3	2	-1	12
14	Montpellier	9	3	1	5	-3	10
15	Troyes	9	1	6	2	-3	9
16	Auxerre	9	2	3	4	-8	9
17	Ajaccio	9	2	1	6	-7	7
18	Brest	9	1	4	4	-10	7
19	Strasbourg	10	0	6	4	-7	6
20	Angers	9	1	1	7	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	1	1	+20	22
2	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+11	20
3	Monaco	9	6	2	1	+9	20
4	Lorient	9	5	3	1	+3	18
5	Lille	9	4	2	3	+6	14
6	Lens	9	3	5	1	+4	14
7	Clermont	9	3	3	3	+2	12
8	Nice	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Reims	10	2	6	2	-1	12
10	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-1	10
11	Troyes	9	3	0	6	-3	9
12	Lyon	9	2	2	5	-3	8
13	Ajaccio	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Brest	9	2	1	6	-5	7
15	Montpellier	9	2	1	6	-6	7
16	Toulouse	9	2	1	6	-6	7
17	Strasbourg	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Nantes	9	0	4	5	-9	4
19	Angers	9	1	1	7	-13	4
20	Auxerre	10	1	1	8	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.