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Championship

Referee: L Smith

Bristol City

S T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 22%

36%

Points per game

1,3

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

36%

43%

Both score Ø 40%

50%

29%

Average goals

2,2

2,1

Scored

1,1

0,5

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,18 xG 0,74

65% Possession 35%

17 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 7

5 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bristol City 15. · Sheffield Weds 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	15	13	0	2	+20	+12.2	39
2	Ipswich	13	11	1	1	+14	+8.5	34
3	Leeds	14	7	4	3	+9	+10.2	25
4	Southampton	14	7	3	4	-1	+3.8	24
5	West Brom	14	6	5	3	+8	+1.0	23
6	Cardiff	14	7	2	5	+7	-0.3	23
7	Hull	14	6	5	3	+4	-0.3	23
8	Sunderland	14	7	1	6	+8	+5.7	22
9	Preston	14	6	4	4	-3	-3.2	22
10	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	-1	+8.2	20
11	Stoke	14	6	1	7	-2	-1.7	19
12	Blackburn	14	6	1	7	-3	+0.9	19
13	Swansea	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.4	18
14	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-1	+0.4	18
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-1	-0.7	18
16	Watford	14	4	5	5	+0	+2.6	17
17	Norwich	13	5	2	6	-1	-2.8	17
18	Millwall	14	4	5	5	-3	-5.6	17
19	Plymouth	14	4	3	7	+1	-4.9	15
20	Coventry	14	3	6	5	-1	+5.1	15
21	Huddersfield	14	3	5	6	-13	-5.5	14
22	Rotherham	13	2	3	8	-12	-16.1	9
23	QPR	14	2	2	10	-16	-11.1	8
24	Sheffield Weds	14	1	3	10	-15	-5.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	7	6	0	1	+9	+7.4	18
2	Leicester	8	6	0	2	+7	+4.5	18
3	Cardiff	7	5	1	1	+7	+1.7	16
4	Leeds	7	4	3	0	+8	+8.5	15
5	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
6	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.6	14
7	Preston	7	4	2	1	+0	-1.8	14
8	Plymouth	7	4	0	3	+7	-0.9	12
9	Watford	8	3	3	2	+5	+5.3	12
10	Sunderland	7	4	0	3	+4	+2.4	12
11	Norwich	6	4	0	2	+3	+1.8	12
12	Stoke	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.3	12
13	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.5	11
14	Coventry	7	2	4	1	+2	+3.8	10
15	Hull	7	2	4	1	+2	+0.6	10
16	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	-1	+4.8	10
17	Blackburn	7	3	0	4	-4	+1.7	9
18	Rotherham	6	2	2	2	+1	-5.2	8
19	Swansea	7	2	2	3	+0	-0.2	8
20	Bristol City	7	2	2	3	+0	+0.3	8
21	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-6	-2.8	8
22	Millwall	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.7	7
23	Sheffield Weds	7	1	2	4	-4	-0.1	5
24	QPR	6	0	1	5	-10	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	7	7	0	0	+13	+7.7	21
2	Ipswich	6	5	1	0	+5	+1.1	16
3	Hull	7	4	1	2	+2	-0.9	13
4	Southampton	7	4	1	2	-2	-0.7	13
5	Sunderland	7	3	1	3	+4	+3.3	10
6	Swansea	7	3	1	3	+2	-1.2	10
7	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+1	-0.8	10
8	Leeds	7	3	1	3	+1	+1.8	10
9	Millwall	7	2	4	1	+1	-4.0	10
10	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.4	10
11	Bristol City	7	3	1	3	-1	-0.9	10
12	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+3	-1.8	9
13	Preston	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.3	8
14	Cardiff	7	2	1	4	+0	-2.0	7
15	Stoke	7	2	1	4	-3	-0.3	7
16	QPR	8	2	1	5	-6	-7.1	7
17	Huddersfield	7	1	3	3	-7	-2.7	6
18	Coventry	7	1	2	4	-3	+1.3	5
19	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-4	-4.6	5
20	Watford	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.6	5
21	Birmingham	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.2	4
22	Plymouth	7	0	3	4	-6	-4.0	3
23	Sheffield Weds	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.2	1
24	Rotherham	7	0	1	6	-13	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.