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Eredivisie

Referee: L Gerrets

Excelsior

S U T T S

1–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 60%

30%

89%

Points per game

1,3

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

80%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

70%

44%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,8

Conceded

1,8

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,95 xG 0,79

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 7. · AZ Alkmaar 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+36	+27.0	33
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	8	1	0	+21	+10.6	25
3	Twente	10	8	1	1	+14	+7.2	25
4	Feyenoord	10	7	2	1	+25	+20.3	23
5	Go Ahead Eagles	10	4	3	3	+2	-8.2	15
6	Sparta Rotterdam	10	4	3	3	-1	-3.9	15
7	Excelsior	10	3	4	3	-1	-3.2	13
8	Heracles	11	3	3	5	-14	-9.8	12
9	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	-3.3	11
10	Heerenveen	10	3	1	6	-8	-5.0	10
11	For Sittard	10	2	4	4	-9	-0.8	10
12	Nijmegen	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.8	9
13	Waalwijk	9	3	0	6	-10	-2.3	9
14	Almere City	10	2	3	5	-11	-3.8	9
15	Ajax	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.2	8
16	Vitesse	10	2	2	6	-9	-3.8	8
17	Volendam	10	2	1	7	-10	-2.5	7
18	Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-12	-8.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+16	+14.6	18
2	Twente	5	5	0	0	+7	+2.6	15
3	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+16	+11.7	13
4	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
5	Go Ahead Eagles	5	4	1	0	+11	+2.3	13
6	Heracles	6	3	1	2	-4	-3.6	10
7	For Sittard	5	2	2	1	+0	+3.0	8
8	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	-1	-1.8	8
9	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.0	7
10	Heerenveen	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.4	7
11	Volendam	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.4	7
12	Ajax	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.8	6
13	Excelsior	5	1	3	1	-1	-0.2	6
14	Waalwijk	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.3	6
15	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.9	4
16	Almere City	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.2	4
17	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-7	-4.1	3
18	Vitesse	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+20	+12.4	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.6	12
3	Feyenoord	5	3	1	1	+9	+8.7	10
4	Twente	5	3	1	1	+7	+4.6	10
5	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	+0	-4.2	7
6	Excelsior	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.0	7
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.1	7
8	Vitesse	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.6	6
9	Almere City	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.6	5
10	Utrecht	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.4	4
11	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
12	Heerenveen	5	1	0	4	-8	-6.4	3
13	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
14	Ajax	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.0	2
15	Go Ahead Eagles	5	0	2	3	-9	-10.4	2
16	For Sittard	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.8	2
17	Heracles	5	0	2	3	-10	-6.2	2
18	Volendam	5	0	0	5	-10	-5.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.