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Allsvenskan

Referee: R Sundell

Varnamo

T S T U T

2–4

Full-time

Sirius

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varnamo Sirius

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,3

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

31%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,45 xG 2,56

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Varnamo 13. · Sirius 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	17	12	2	3	+28	+16.5	38
2	Djurgarden	16	11	1	4	+16	+0.9	34
3	Mjallby	17	9	2	6	+4	-0.6	29
4	Hammarby	16	9	1	6	+10	+0.3	28
5	GAIS	17	9	1	7	-1	-3.6	28
6	Hacken	17	8	3	6	+5	-3.3	27
7	Elfsborg	17	8	1	8	+7	+4.3	25
8	Brommapojkarna	17	6	6	5	-2	+3.5	24
9	AIK	17	7	2	8	-6	+1.9	23
10	Sirius	16	6	3	7	+0	-0.2	21
11	Halmstad	17	7	0	10	-10	-4.2	21
12	Norrkoping	17	6	2	9	-16	-3.0	20
13	Varnamo	16	5	3	8	-4	-4.6	18
14	Goteborg	16	5	3	8	-8	-4.1	18
15	Kalmar	16	5	1	10	-12	-6.6	16
16	Vasteras SK	17	3	3	11	-11	+2.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	8	7	0	1	+18	+7.4	21
2	Mjallby	9	6	2	1	+8	+0.7	20
3	Elfsborg	9	6	1	2	+14	+4.0	19
4	GAIS	9	6	1	2	+5	+0.5	19
5	Hammarby	8	6	0	2	+11	+0.2	18
6	Hacken	9	5	1	3	+7	-1.7	16
7	Djurgarden	8	5	1	2	+4	-2.1	16
8	AIK	8	5	0	3	+8	+2.6	15
9	Halmstad	8	5	0	3	+5	+1.2	15
10	Norrkoping	8	4	0	4	-5	-1.4	12
11	Sirius	8	3	2	3	+4	+1.7	11
12	Brommapojkarna	8	2	3	3	-6	+0.9	9
13	Goteborg	8	2	2	4	-6	-4.7	8
14	Kalmar	8	2	1	5	-4	-1.7	7
15	Vasteras SK	9	2	1	6	-6	+1.3	7
16	Varnamo	8	1	2	5	-8	-1.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Djurgarden	8	6	0	2	+12	+3.1	18
2	Malmo FF	9	5	2	2	+10	+9.1	17
3	Brommapojkarna	9	4	3	2	+4	+2.5	15
4	Varnamo	8	4	1	3	+4	-3.0	13
5	Hacken	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.6	11
6	Hammarby	8	3	1	4	-1	+0.1	10
7	Goteborg	8	3	1	4	-2	+0.6	10
8	Sirius	8	3	1	4	-4	-1.9	10
9	Mjallby	8	3	0	5	-4	-1.3	9
10	GAIS	8	3	0	5	-6	-4.0	9
11	Kalmar	8	3	0	5	-8	-5.0	9
12	Norrkoping	9	2	2	5	-11	-1.6	8
13	AIK	9	2	2	5	-14	-0.7	8
14	Elfsborg	8	2	0	6	-7	+0.2	6
15	Halmstad	9	2	0	7	-15	-5.3	6
16	Vasteras SK	8	1	2	5	-5	+1.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.