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Ekstraklasa

Referee: L Kuzma

Motor Lublin

U S U T U

2–1

Full-time

Pogon Szczecin

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motor Lublin Pogon Szczecin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

22%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

44%

67%

Both score Ø 64%

61%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,97 xG 1,75

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

4 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Motor Lublin 13. · Pogon Szczecin 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gornik Zabrze	19	10	3	6	+6	-2.6	33
2	Jagiellonia	18	9	5	4	+10	-2.7	32
3	Wisla Plock	18	7	9	2	+9	+2.4	30
4	Rakow	18	9	2	7	+3	+3.0	29
5	Zaglebie	19	7	7	5	+5	+0.5	28
6	Lechia Gdansk	19	8	4	7	+2	-1.6	28
7	Cracovia	18	7	6	5	+4	+2.9	27
8	Radomiak Radom	18	7	5	6	+5	+0.9	26
9	Lech Poznan	18	6	8	4	+1	+11.8	26
10	Korona Kielce	18	6	6	6	+2	+0.2	24
11	GKS Katowice	18	7	2	9	-3	-8.0	23
12	Pogon Szczecin	18	6	3	9	-4	+7.9	21
13	Motor Lublin	18	4	9	5	-5	-1.9	21
14	Arka Gdynia	18	6	3	9	-17	-6.4	21
15	Piast Gliwice	18	5	5	8	-1	-6.2	20
16	Widzew Lodz	19	6	2	11	-4	+3.1	20
17	Legia	18	4	7	7	-2	+1.0	19
18	Nieciecza	18	5	4	9	-11	-4.2	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	7	1	2	+11	+3.1	22
2	Wisla Plock	10	6	3	1	+9	+5.0	21
3	Radomiak Radom	9	6	2	1	+15	+5.4	20
4	Arka Gdynia	9	6	2	1	+4	-3.3	20
5	Zaglebie	10	5	4	1	+11	+4.2	19
6	Lechia Gdansk	9	5	2	2	+9	+2.4	17
7	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	1	3	+6	+8.3	16
8	Cracovia	9	4	4	1	+5	+5.7	16
9	Jagiellonia	7	5	0	2	+7	+0.6	15
10	Korona Kielce	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.4	14
11	Widzew Lodz	10	4	2	4	+1	+2.7	14
12	Legia	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.6	13
13	GKS Katowice	9	4	1	4	+0	-3.5	13
14	Lech Poznan	10	3	4	3	-1	+8.1	13
15	Motor Lublin	9	2	6	1	+1	+4.7	12
16	Rakow	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.8	11
17	Piast Gliwice	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.1	9
18	Nieciecza	9	2	2	5	-7	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	9	6	0	3	+4	+2.1	18
2	Jagiellonia	11	4	5	2	+3	-3.3	17
3	Lech Poznan	8	3	4	1	+2	+3.7	13
4	Piast Gliwice	10	3	2	5	-1	-5.1	11
5	Cracovia	9	3	2	4	-1	-2.8	11
6	Nieciecza	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
7	Gornik Zabrze	9	3	2	4	-5	-5.8	11
8	Lechia Gdansk	10	3	2	5	-7	-3.9	11
9	Korona Kielce	9	2	4	3	-1	-2.2	10
10	GKS Katowice	9	3	1	5	-3	-4.5	10
11	Wisla Plock	8	1	6	1	+0	-2.7	9
12	Motor Lublin	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.6	9
13	Zaglebie	9	2	3	4	-6	-3.8	9
14	Widzew Lodz	9	2	0	7	-5	+0.5	6
15	Legia	9	1	3	5	-6	+0.4	6
16	Radomiak Radom	9	1	3	5	-10	-4.5	6
17	Pogon Szczecin	9	1	2	6	-10	-0.4	5
18	Arka Gdynia	9	0	1	8	-21	-3.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.