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Championship

Referee: L Doughty

Ipswich

T U U U T

2–2

Full-time

Derby

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

1,7

4,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,91 xG 1,48

69% Possession 31%

18 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

14 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 19. · Derby 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.6	12
2	West Brom	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.2	10
3	Stoke	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.5	9
4	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
5	Coventry	3	2	1	0	+8	+3.5	7
6	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
7	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+0	+3.0	7
8	Millwall	3	2	0	1	-1	+0.8	6
9	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.9	5
10	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.5	4
11	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.9	4
12	Portsmouth	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.0	4
13	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.8	4
14	Hull	3	1	1	1	-2	-2.6	4
15	Charlton	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.2	4
16	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.5	4
17	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	+1	+0.5	3
18	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
19	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
20	Wrexham	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.0	1
21	Derby	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
22	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.1	1
23	Oxford	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.0	0
24	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
2	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.0	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.9	6
4	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.7	4
5	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
6	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
7	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
8	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
9	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
10	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
11	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	+3.3	3
12	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.6	3
13	Hull	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
15	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
16	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
17	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
18	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
19	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
20	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
21	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
22	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.4	0
23	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.6	0
24	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.7	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.5	6
3	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.1	6
4	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.1	6
5	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.7	4
6	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
7	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
8	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
9	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
10	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.7	3
11	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.8	3
12	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
13	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
14	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
15	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
16	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
18	Charlton	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
19	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
20	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
21	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
22	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
23	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.