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Bundesliga

Referee: F Brych

Mainz

T S T U T

1–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

38%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

63%

75%

Both score Ø 51%

63%

38%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 12. · RB Leipzig 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Union Berlin	8	5	2	1	+9	17
2	Freiburg	8	5	2	1	+6	17
3	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+17	15
4	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+6	15
5	Dortmund	8	5	0	3	+1	15
6	Hoffenheim	9	4	2	3	+4	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+3	14
8	FC Koln	8	3	4	1	+4	13
9	M'gladbach	8	3	3	2	+1	12
10	Augsburg	8	4	0	4	-4	12
11	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	+1	11
12	Mainz	8	3	2	3	-4	11
13	Wolfsburg	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Hertha	8	1	4	3	-2	7
15	Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	Stuttgart	8	0	5	3	-4	5
17	Leverkusen	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Bochum	8	0	1	7	-18	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
2	Union Berlin	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Hoffenheim	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	M'gladbach	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Bayern Munich	4	2	2	0	+6	8
7	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Freiburg	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Wolfsburg	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	+2	4
12	Schalke 04	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Hertha	4	0	3	1	-1	3
14	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-6	3
15	Stuttgart	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Mainz	3	0	2	1	-3	2
17	Leverkusen	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Bochum	4	0	1	3	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Werder Bremen	5	3	2	0	+4	11
2	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Augsburg	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Mainz	5	3	0	2	-1	9
5	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+11	7
6	Union Berlin	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	FC Koln	4	1	3	0	+2	6
9	Dortmund	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Stuttgart	4	0	3	1	-1	3
14	M'gladbach	4	0	3	1	-4	3
15	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-5	3
16	Schalke 04	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	RB Leipzig	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Bochum	4	0	0	4	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.