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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Brighton

U U S T S

2–3

Full-time

Man United

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%

18 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 8. · Man United 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	2	2	0	+5	6
2	Everton	2	2	0	+4	6
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	+4	6
4	Liverpool	2	2	0	+3	6
5	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	+3	6
6	Tottenham	2	1	1	+2	3
7	Man City	1	1	0	+2	3
8	Brighton	2	1	1	+1	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	+1	3
10	Leeds	2	1	1	+0	3
11	Wolves	2	1	1	+0	3
12	Chelsea	2	1	1	+0	3
13	Newcastle	2	1	1	-1	3
14	Burnley	1	0	1	-2	0
15	Man United	1	0	1	-2	0
16	West Ham	2	0	2	-3	0
17	Sheffield United	2	0	2	-3	0
18	Fulham	2	0	2	-4	0
19	Southampton	2	0	2	-4	0
20	West Brom	2	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	1	1	0	+3	3
2	Leicester	1	1	0	+2	3
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	+1	3
4	Leeds	1	1	0	+1	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	+1	3
6	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	+1	3
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	+1	3
8	Tottenham	1	0	1	-1	0
9	Brighton	1	0	1	-2	0
10	Wolves	1	0	1	-2	0
11	Man United	1	0	1	-2	0
12	West Ham	1	0	1	-2	0
13	Sheffield United	1	0	1	-2	0
14	Chelsea	1	0	1	-2	0
15	Southampton	1	0	1	-3	0
16	Newcastle	1	0	1	-3	0
17	Fulham	1	0	1	-3	0
18	West Brom	1	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	1	1	0	+3	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	+3	3
3	Arsenal	1	1	0	+3	3
4	Leicester	1	1	0	+3	3
5	Chelsea	1	1	0	+2	3
6	Man City	1	1	0	+2	3
7	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	+2	3
8	Newcastle	1	1	0	+2	3
9	Wolves	1	1	0	+2	3
10	Liverpool	1	1	0	+2	3
11	Everton	1	1	0	+1	3
12	Leeds	1	0	1	-1	0
13	Fulham	1	0	1	-1	0
14	West Ham	1	0	1	-1	0
15	Southampton	1	0	1	-1	0
16	Sheffield United	1	0	1	-1	0
17	Burnley	1	0	1	-2	0
18	West Brom	1	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.