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Bundesliga
Referee: T Welz
Paderborn
T
1–3
Full-time
Freiburg
T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Freiburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
5,0
3,5
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
3,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
5,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
3,0
Conceded
3,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

54% Possession 46%
15 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
9 Corners 5
3 Offside 1
20 Free kicks against 6
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Paderborn 12. · Freiburg 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 RB Leipzig 1 1 0 0 +4 3
3 Freiburg 1 1 0 0 +3 3
4 Fortuna Dusseldorf 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Ein Frankfurt 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Bayern Munich 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 Hertha 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 M'gladbach 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Schalke 04 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Paderborn 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
15 FC Koln 2 0 0 2 -3 0
16 Mainz 1 0 0 1 -3 0
17 Augsburg 1 0 0 1 -4 0
18 Union Berlin 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Paderborn Freiburg
1–0 S. Mamba ⚽
S. Vasiliadis
3′
21′
⚽ L. Waldschmidt 1–1
40′
⚽ N. Petersen 1–2
P. Lienhart
Uwe Hünemeier 🟨
42′
45′
🟨 Jérôme Gondorf
Half-time 1–2
62′
🔁 M. Frantz
↦ J. Gondorf
Sebastian Vasiliadis 🟨
63′
Klaus Gjasula 🟨
66′
G. Holtmann 🔁
↦ Cauly
69′
B. Gueye 🔁
↦ S. Mamba
75′
78′
🔁 L. Höler
↦ L. Waldschmidt
K. Pröger 🔁
↦ M. Dräger
83′
86′
🔁 Kwon Chang-Hoon
↦ B. Borello
90′
⚽ Kwon Chang-Hoon 1–3
L. Höler
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Paderborn

4-4-2
21 J. Huth G
2 U. Hünemeier D
5 C. Strohdiek D
29 J. Collins D
22 C. Antwi-Adjej M
8 K. Gjasula M
11 S. Michel F
10 Cauly M
25 M. Dräger D
39 S. Vasiliadis M
30 S. Mamba F
Bench (9)
38 G. Holtmann
27 B. Gueye
9 K. Pröger
1 M. Ratajczak
15 L. Kilian
31 B. Zolinski
14 K. Shelton
20 L. Jans
7 M. Ritter

Coach: S. Baumgart

Freiburg

3-4-1-2
1 A. Schwolow G
30 C. Günter M
3 P. Lienhart D
25 R. Koch D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
27 N. Höfler M
7 J. Schmid M
20 J. Gondorf M
18 N. Petersen F
11 L. Waldschmidt F
21 B. Borello F
Bench (9)
8 M. Frantz
9 L. Höler
28 Kwon Chang-Hoon
23 D. Heintz
22 R. Sallai
34 T. Kleindienst
6 A. Abrashi
32 L. Tempelmann
40 N. Thiede

Coach: C. Streich

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,38
🔒
U
3,60
🔒
B ✓
2,84
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,61
🔒
U2,5
2,31
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Welz · 64 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.