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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Mainz

T S T T T

1–3

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

4,2

Scored

1,3

3,5

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+2,8

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 48%

32%

63%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 87%

84%

89%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,7

4,1

Scored

1,4

2,9

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

31% Possession 69%

8 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 15. · Bayern Munich 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	19	12	4	3	+28	40
2	Bayern Munich	19	12	3	4	+33	39
3	M'gladbach	19	12	2	5	+15	38
4	Dortmund	19	10	6	3	+23	36
5	Leverkusen	19	10	4	5	+8	34
6	Schalke 04	20	9	7	4	+5	34
7	Hoffenheim	19	9	3	7	-1	30
8	Freiburg	19	8	5	6	+3	29
9	Ein Frankfurt	19	7	3	9	+1	24
10	Wolfsburg	19	6	6	7	-3	24
11	Union Berlin	19	7	2	10	-4	23
12	Augsburg	19	6	5	8	-7	23
13	Hertha	20	6	5	9	-10	23
14	FC Koln	19	6	2	11	-15	20
15	Mainz	19	6	0	13	-17	18
16	Werder Bremen	19	4	5	10	-20	17
17	Paderborn	19	4	3	12	-17	15
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	19	4	3	12	-22	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	10	8	1	1	+14	25
2	Bayern Munich	10	7	1	2	+24	22
3	Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+21	21
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+16	20
5	Schalke 04	10	5	4	1	+5	19
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	3	2	+7	18
7	Union Berlin	10	6	0	4	+3	18
8	Leverkusen	10	4	4	2	+5	16
9	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+3	14
10	Freiburg	9	4	2	3	+1	14
11	FC Koln	9	4	1	4	+0	13
12	Wolfsburg	10	3	4	3	-1	13
13	Hoffenheim	10	4	1	5	-6	13
14	Hertha	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	1	5	-7	10
16	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-6	9
17	Paderborn	10	2	1	7	-10	7
18	Werder Bremen	9	1	2	6	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+12	20
2	Leverkusen	9	6	0	3	+3	18
3	Bayern Munich	9	5	2	2	+9	17
4	Hoffenheim	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Dortmund	10	4	3	3	+2	15
6	Freiburg	10	4	3	3	+2	15
7	Schalke 04	10	4	3	3	+0	15
8	M'gladbach	9	4	1	4	+1	13
9	Hertha	10	3	3	4	-3	12
10	Werder Bremen	10	3	3	4	-6	12
11	Wolfsburg	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Augsburg	10	2	3	5	-10	9
13	Mainz	10	3	0	7	-11	9
14	Paderborn	9	2	2	5	-7	8
15	FC Koln	10	2	1	7	-15	7
16	Ein Frankfurt	9	2	0	7	-6	6
17	Union Berlin	9	1	2	6	-7	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	1	2	7	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.