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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Mainz

S T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Freiburg

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

35%

41%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

82%

65%

Both score Ø 62%

59%

65%

Average goals

3,8

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

2,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

58% Possession 42%

24 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 14. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	17	11	4	2	+28	37
2	M'gladbach	18	11	2	5	+13	35
3	Bayern Munich	17	10	3	4	+24	33
4	Schalke 04	18	9	6	3	+10	33
5	Dortmund	17	8	6	3	+17	30
6	Leverkusen	17	8	4	5	+2	28
7	Hoffenheim	17	8	3	6	-3	27
8	Freiburg	17	7	5	5	+4	26
9	Wolfsburg	17	6	6	5	+0	24
10	Augsburg	17	6	5	6	-3	23
11	Union Berlin	17	6	2	9	-4	20
12	Hertha	17	5	4	8	-7	19
13	Ein Frankfurt	17	5	3	9	-2	18
14	Mainz	17	6	0	11	-14	18
15	FC Koln	17	5	2	10	-13	17
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	17	4	3	10	-18	15
17	Werder Bremen	17	3	5	9	-18	14
18	Paderborn	17	3	3	11	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Bayern Munich	9	6	1	2	+19	19
3	Schalke 04	10	5	4	1	+5	19
4	Dortmund	8	5	3	0	+17	18
5	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+14	17
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Union Berlin	9	5	0	4	+1	15
8	Augsburg	8	4	2	2	+5	14
9	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Leverkusen	9	3	4	2	+2	13
11	Wolfsburg	9	3	4	2	+0	13
12	Hoffenheim	9	4	1	4	-5	13
13	FC Koln	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Hertha	8	3	1	4	-3	10
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	3	1	4	-6	10
16	Mainz	8	3	0	5	-5	9
17	Paderborn	9	2	1	6	-7	7
18	Werder Bremen	8	1	2	5	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+14	20
2	Leverkusen	8	5	0	3	+0	15
3	Bayern Munich	8	4	2	2	+5	14
4	Schalke 04	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Hoffenheim	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	M'gladbach	9	4	1	4	+1	13
7	Freiburg	9	3	3	3	+1	12
8	Dortmund	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Wolfsburg	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Hertha	9	2	3	4	-4	9
11	Werder Bremen	9	2	3	4	-7	9
12	Augsburg	9	2	3	4	-8	9
13	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-9	9
14	FC Koln	9	2	1	6	-11	7
15	Union Berlin	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Paderborn	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Ein Frankfurt	8	1	0	7	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.