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La Liga

Referee: Javier Estrada

Real Madrid

U U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

1,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — La Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 53%

62%

43%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

48%

19%

Both score Ø 41%

43%

38%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

0,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

16 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Ath Madrid 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	21	13	7	1	+26	46
2	Barcelona	21	13	4	4	+25	43
3	Sevilla	21	11	5	5	+7	38
4	Getafe	21	10	6	5	+10	36
5	Ath Madrid	21	9	9	3	+8	36
6	Sociedad	21	10	4	7	+8	34
7	Valencia	21	9	7	5	+3	34
8	Villarreal	21	9	4	8	+7	31
9	Ath Bilbao	21	7	10	4	+7	31
10	Granada	22	9	3	10	-2	30
11	Osasuna	21	6	10	5	+3	28
12	Betis	21	7	6	8	-4	27
13	Levante	21	8	2	11	-6	26
14	Alaves	21	6	5	10	-9	23
15	Eibar	21	6	5	10	-9	23
16	Valladolid	21	4	10	7	-7	22
17	Mallorca	21	5	3	13	-15	18
18	Celta	21	3	8	10	-13	17
19	Leganes	21	3	6	12	-17	15
20	Espanol	22	3	6	13	-22	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	9	1	0	+25	28
2	Real Madrid	10	7	3	0	+15	24
3	Valencia	11	6	5	0	+9	23
4	Ath Madrid	11	6	4	1	+8	22
5	Granada	11	7	1	3	+7	22
6	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+10	21
7	Getafe	11	6	3	2	+8	21
8	Betis	11	6	2	3	+6	20
9	Sevilla	10	5	3	2	+5	18
10	Sociedad	10	5	2	3	+10	17
11	Osasuna	11	4	5	2	+5	17
12	Levante	10	5	2	3	+4	17
13	Mallorca	11	5	2	4	+3	17
14	Villarreal	10	4	4	2	+7	16
15	Alaves	11	4	4	3	+5	16
16	Eibar	10	5	0	5	-2	15
17	Valladolid	10	2	6	2	+3	12
18	Celta	11	2	5	4	-4	11
19	Leganes	11	3	1	7	-7	10
20	Espanol	11	0	4	7	-13	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	6	4	1	+11	22
2	Sevilla	11	6	2	3	+2	20
3	Sociedad	11	5	2	4	-2	17
4	Getafe	10	4	3	3	+2	15
5	Villarreal	11	5	0	6	+0	15
6	Barcelona	11	4	3	4	+0	15
7	Ath Madrid	10	3	5	2	+0	14
8	Osasuna	10	2	5	3	-2	11
9	Valencia	10	3	2	5	-6	11
10	Espanol	11	3	2	6	-9	11
11	Ath Bilbao	11	1	7	3	-3	10
12	Valladolid	11	2	4	5	-10	10
13	Levante	11	3	0	8	-10	9
14	Eibar	11	1	5	5	-7	8
15	Granada	11	2	2	7	-9	8
16	Betis	10	1	4	5	-10	7
17	Alaves	10	2	1	7	-14	7
18	Celta	10	1	3	6	-9	6
19	Leganes	10	0	5	5	-10	5
20	Mallorca	10	0	1	9	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.