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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Dortmund

T S U T S

4–1

Full-time

Werder Bremen

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

75%

39%

Both score Ø 64%

64%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 6. · Werder Bremen 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	21	5	3	+45	68
2	RB Leipzig	29	18	7	4	+29	61
3	Wolfsburg	29	15	9	5	+22	54
4	Ein Frankfurt	29	14	11	4	+15	53
5	Leverkusen	29	13	8	8	+16	47
6	Dortmund	28	14	4	10	+17	46
7	M'gladbach	29	11	10	8	+9	43
8	Union Berlin	29	10	13	6	+9	43
9	Freiburg	29	11	7	11	+2	40
10	Stuttgart	29	10	9	10	+5	39
11	Augsburg	29	9	6	14	-13	33
12	Hoffenheim	29	8	8	13	-6	32
13	Werder Bremen	28	7	9	12	-11	30
14	Mainz	28	7	7	14	-18	28
15	Bielefeld	29	7	6	16	-24	27
16	Hertha	28	6	8	14	-14	26
17	FC Koln	29	5	8	16	-26	23
18	Schalke 04	29	2	7	20	-57	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	4	0	+32	34
2	RB Leipzig	15	10	3	2	+14	33
3	Wolfsburg	14	9	4	1	+16	31
4	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	6	0	+13	30
5	Union Berlin	15	6	8	1	+11	26
6	Freiburg	15	7	4	4	+10	25
7	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+10	25
8	M'gladbach	15	7	4	4	+9	25
9	Dortmund	13	7	2	4	+12	23
10	Augsburg	15	5	4	6	-5	19
11	Stuttgart	14	4	6	4	+4	18
12	Hoffenheim	14	5	3	6	+4	18
13	Bielefeld	15	5	1	9	-11	16
14	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Werder Bremen	14	3	4	7	-9	13
16	Mainz	14	3	3	8	-9	12
17	Schalke 04	15	2	3	10	-20	9
18	FC Koln	14	1	5	8	-10	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	1	3	+13	34
2	RB Leipzig	14	8	4	2	+15	28
3	Wolfsburg	15	6	5	4	+6	23
4	Dortmund	15	7	2	6	+5	23
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	5	4	+2	23
6	Leverkusen	14	6	4	4	+6	22
7	Stuttgart	15	6	3	6	+1	21
8	M'gladbach	14	4	6	4	+0	18
9	Werder Bremen	14	4	5	5	-2	17
10	Union Berlin	14	4	5	5	-2	17
11	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-9	16
12	Freiburg	14	4	3	7	-8	15
13	FC Koln	15	4	3	8	-16	15
14	Augsburg	14	4	2	8	-8	14
15	Hoffenheim	15	3	5	7	-10	14
16	Hertha	14	2	5	7	-6	11
17	Bielefeld	14	2	5	7	-13	11
18	Schalke 04	14	0	4	10	-37	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.