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Bundesliga
Referee: A Kijas
Tirol
T S S T T
2–2
Full-time
Sturm Graz
U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tirol Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 36%
22%
50%
Points per game
1,1
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
61%
78%
Both score Ø 64%
61%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,5
Scored
1,4
2,1
Conceded
1,9
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%
4 Shots 19
2 Shots on target 8
1 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 1
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Tirol 10. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 19 15 3 1 +31 48
2 Sturm Graz 18 9 4 5 +11 31
3 Wolfsberger AC 18 9 4 5 +3 31
4 A. Klagenfurt 18 6 7 5 -1 25
5 SK Rapid 19 6 6 7 -1 24
6 Ried 18 6 6 6 -10 24
7 Austria Vienna 18 4 9 5 +2 21
8 Hartberg 18 5 6 7 +0 21
9 LASK 18 5 5 8 -3 20
10 Tirol 18 4 7 7 -10 19
11 Admira 18 3 7 8 -4 16
12 Altach 18 3 4 11 -18 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

19. Sep -21 Sturm Graz – Tirol 5–0 12. May -21 Tirol – Sturm Graz 2–3 11. Apr -21 Sturm Graz – Tirol 3–2 6. Mar -21 Tirol – Sturm Graz 1–1 28. Nov -20 Sturm Graz – Tirol 1–0

Match report

Tirol Sturm Graz
1–0 R. Behounek ⚽
B. Blume
5′
38′
⚽ R. Højlund 1–1
M. Sarkaria
Half-time 1–1
S. Skrbo 🔁
↦ Ž. Rogelj
58′
D. Tomic 🔁
↦ J. Ertlthaler
59′
Stefan Skrbo 🟨
71′
74′
⚽ R. Højlund 1–2
J. Forst 🔁
↦ V. Müller
77′
J. Naschberger 🔁
↦ S. Ogrinec
77′
2–2 S. Skrbo ⚽
T. Prica
81′
83′
🟨 Jakob Jantscher
87′
🔁 A. Kuen
↦ A. Dante
88′
🔁 L. Jäger
↦ J. Stankovič
91′
🔁 A. Niangbo
↦ M. Sarkaria
Denis Tomic 🟨
95′
R. Smith 🔁
↦ T. Prica
95′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Tirol

4-4-2
25 F. Oswald G
24 F. Koch D
44 K. Schulz D
30 R. Behounek D
15 M. Awoudja D
10 B. Blume F
77 J. Ertlthaler M
98 S. Ogrinec M
4 V. Müller M
21 Ž. Rogelj M
33 T. Prica F
Bench (7)
23 S. Skrbo
18 D. Tomic
19 J. Forst
17 J. Naschberger
8 R. Smith
26 D. Štumberger
13 B. Ozegovic

Coach: T. Silberberger

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
27 J. Siebenhandl G
4 J. Stankovič M
5 G. Wüthrich D
22 J. Gazibegović D
42 D. Affengruber D
44 A. Dante D
25 S. Hierländer M
8 A. Prass M
13 J. Jantscher F
11 M. Sarkaria M
9 R. Højlund F
Bench (7)
19 A. Kuen
17 L. Jäger
15 A. Niangbo
26 C. Lang
35 N. Geyrhofer
23 L. Kronberger
32 T. Schützenauer

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U ✓
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Kijas · 62 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.