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Bundesliga
Referee: S Stegemann
Augsburg
T S S T S
1–2
Full-time
Mainz
S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Augsburg Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,8
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
2,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,2
This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
1,5
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
2,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%
6 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 4
13 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Augsburg 9. · Mainz 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 M'gladbach 3 2 1 0 +3 7
2 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +7 6
3 Dortmund 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 FC Koln 2 1 1 0 +2 4
5 Union Berlin 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Mainz 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Freiburg 2 1 0 1 +2 3
8 Hoffenheim 2 1 0 1 -1 3
9 Augsburg 2 1 0 1 -3 3
10 Werder Bremen 2 0 2 0 +0 2
11 Stuttgart 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 RB Leipzig 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Schalke 04 2 0 1 1 -2 1
14 Wolfsburg 2 0 1 1 -2 1
15 Hertha 3 0 1 2 -3 1
16 Ein Frankfurt 2 0 1 1 -5 1
17 Bochum 2 0 0 2 -2 0
18 Leverkusen 2 0 0 2 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Augsburg Mainz
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw 🟨
3′
Elvis Rexhbeçaj 🟨
29′
29′
🟨 Stefan Bell
31′
K. Onisiwo 0–1
A. Fulgini
33′
ℹ️ Karim Onisiwo
VAR: Goal confirmed
1–1 E. Demirović
F. Uduokhai
35′
Half-time 1–1
62′
🟨 Jonathan Burkardt
R. Vargas 🔁
↦ A. Maier
68′
R. Pepi 🔁
↦ F. Jensen
68′
68′
🔁 Lee Jae-Sung
↦ A. Fulgini
A. Hahn 🔁
↦ E. Demirović
71′
75′
🔁 E. Fernandes
↦ S. Widmer
75′
🔁 D. Burgzorg
↦ J. Burkardt
J. Baumgartlinger 🔁
↦ C. Gruezo
85′
D. Caligiuri 🔁
↦ M. Pedersen
85′
88′
🔁 L. Barreiro
↦ A. Stach
88′
🔁 M. Mustapha
↦ K. Onisiwo
93′
Lee Jae-Sung 1–2
Aarón Martín
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Augsburg

3-4-2-1
1 R. Gikiewicz G
23 M. Bauer D
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
19 F. Uduokhai D
3 M. Pedersen M
8 C. Gruezo M
13 E. Rexhbeçaj M
22 Iago M
10 A. Maier F
24 F. Jensen F
9 E. Demirović F
Bench (9)
16 R. Vargas
18 R. Pepi
28 A. Hahn
14 J. Baumgartlinger
20 D. Caligiuri
7 F. Niederlechner
25 D. Klein
21 L. Petkov
32 R. Framberger

Coach: E. Maaßen

Mainz

3-5-2
27 R. Zentner G
16 S. Bell D
42 A. Hack D
5 M. Leitsch D
30 S. Widmer M
6 A. Stach M
31 D. Kohr M
10 A. Fulgini M
3 Aarón Martín M
29 J. Burkardt F
9 K. Onisiwo F
Bench (9)
7 Lee Jae-Sung
20 E. Fernandes
37 D. Burgzorg
8 L. Barreiro
36 M. Mustapha
11 M. Ingvartsen
1 F. Dahmen
19 A. Caci
17 N. Tauer

Coach: B. Svensson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,52
U
3,52
B ✓
2,11
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,86
U2,5
1,96
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Stegemann · 140 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.