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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Mainz

U S T T T

1–4

Full-time

Stuttgart

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Stuttgart

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 29%

38%

19%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 68%

63%

72%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,42 xG 1,78

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 9. · Stuttgart 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	20	8	5	+53	+16.0	68
2	Dortmund	32	21	4	7	+36	+18.8	67
3	RB Leipzig	33	19	6	8	+21	+13.6	63
4	Union Berlin	33	17	8	8	+12	-4.9	59
5	Freiburg	33	17	8	8	+8	-4.7	59
6	Leverkusen	32	14	7	11	+11	+9.5	49
7	Wolfsburg	33	13	10	10	+10	+4.0	49
8	Ein Frankfurt	33	12	11	10	+5	+1.1	47
9	Mainz	32	12	9	11	+2	-1.4	45
10	FC Koln	33	10	12	11	-4	+4.1	42
11	M'gladbach	32	10	9	13	-5	-6.3	39
12	Werder Bremen	33	10	6	17	-12	-6.4	36
13	Hoffenheim	33	10	5	18	-9	-4.8	35
14	Augsburg	32	9	7	16	-16	-7.7	34
15	Bochum	33	9	5	19	-35	-10.0	32
16	Schalke 04	33	7	10	16	-34	-7.7	31
17	Stuttgart	32	6	11	15	-15	+0.9	29
18	Hertha	33	6	8	19	-28	-14.0	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	16	14	1	1	+38	+14.1	43
2	Bayern Munich	17	11	5	1	+36	+15.8	38
3	RB Leipzig	16	12	2	2	+18	+1.4	38
4	Union Berlin	16	10	6	0	+18	-1.1	36
5	Freiburg	17	10	4	3	+15	-1.3	34
6	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+13	+4.1	30
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	5	3	+16	+6.5	29
8	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+12	+5.0	26
9	Wolfsburg	16	6	7	3	+10	+5.7	25
10	Mainz	16	6	6	4	+9	-0.2	24
11	FC Koln	16	6	5	5	+9	+7.0	23
12	Hoffenheim	17	7	2	8	-1	+2.1	23
13	Bochum	16	7	2	7	-7	-2.8	23
14	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	-5	-2.5	22
15	Hertha	17	5	6	6	-3	-2.5	21
16	Stuttgart	16	5	5	6	+1	+1.6	20
17	Schalke 04	17	5	5	7	-13	-2.5	20
18	Werder Bremen	17	5	2	10	-2	+1.2	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	9	3	4	+17	+0.3	30
2	RB Leipzig	17	7	4	6	+3	+12.2	25
3	Freiburg	16	7	4	5	-7	-3.4	25
4	Wolfsburg	17	7	3	7	+0	-1.8	24
5	Dortmund	16	7	3	6	-2	+4.7	24
6	Leverkusen	16	6	5	5	-1	+4.5	23
7	Union Berlin	17	7	2	8	-6	-3.8	23
8	Mainz	16	6	3	7	-7	-1.2	21
9	Werder Bremen	16	5	4	7	-10	-7.6	19
10	FC Koln	17	4	7	6	-13	-2.8	19
11	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	6	7	-11	-5.4	18
12	Hoffenheim	16	3	3	10	-8	-6.9	12
13	Augsburg	16	3	3	10	-11	-5.2	12
14	Schalke 04	16	2	5	9	-21	-5.3	11
15	Stuttgart	16	1	6	9	-16	-0.7	9
16	M'gladbach	16	1	6	9	-18	-10.4	9
17	Bochum	17	2	3	12	-28	-7.2	9
18	Hertha	16	1	2	13	-25	-11.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.