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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Troyes

T U T T T

1–1

Full-time

Strasbourg

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

2,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 19%

11%

26%

Points per game

0,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

66%

57%

Both score Ø 69%

69%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

2,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,74 xG 1,58

45% Possession 55%

8 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Troyes 19. · Strasbourg 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	35	26	3	6	+49	+7.7	81
2	Lens	35	22	9	4	+32	+6.9	75
3	Marseille	36	22	7	7	+29	+11.1	73
4	Monaco	36	19	8	9	+15	+4.0	65
5	Lille	36	18	9	9	+20	+14.1	63
6	Rennes	36	19	5	12	+27	+7.3	62
7	Lyon	36	17	8	11	+17	+2.0	59
8	Clermont	35	15	8	12	-6	-0.3	53
9	Lorient	35	14	10	11	+2	-5.5	52
10	Nice	35	13	12	10	+8	+4.8	51
11	Reims	35	12	14	9	+5	+10.2	50
12	Montpellier	36	14	5	17	+2	+0.3	47
13	Toulouse	35	12	7	16	-7	+2.2	43
14	Strasbourg	35	9	11	15	-7	+3.8	38
15	Brest	35	9	11	15	-11	-7.5	38
16	Auxerre	35	8	10	17	-25	-3.9	34
17	Nantes	36	6	15	15	-18	-7.3	33
18	Ajaccio	36	6	5	25	-49	-9.6	23
19	Troyes	35	4	10	21	-35	-25.3	22
20	Angers	35	3	5	27	-48	-15.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	18	16	1	1	+25	+1.0	49
2	Rennes	18	14	0	4	+27	+8.1	42
3	Paris SG	18	13	2	3	+21	+0.8	41
4	Lille	18	12	4	2	+14	+10.7	40
5	Marseille	18	10	4	4	+12	+8.6	34
6	Lyon	18	9	5	4	+13	+3.6	32
7	Monaco	18	9	3	6	+5	-0.8	30
8	Reims	17	8	5	4	+7	+10.5	29
9	Lorient	17	8	4	5	+6	+2.1	28
10	Clermont	18	8	3	7	-10	+1.9	27
11	Nice	17	6	6	5	+4	+2.1	24
12	Montpellier	18	7	3	8	+1	+0.7	24
13	Toulouse	18	6	5	7	+0	+2.3	23
14	Brest	17	6	5	6	-2	-1.4	23
15	Auxerre	17	5	7	5	-7	+1.6	22
16	Strasbourg	18	5	6	7	-1	+6.0	21
17	Nantes	18	4	8	6	-7	-2.2	20
18	Troyes	17	1	9	7	-11	-12.5	12
19	Ajaccio	18	3	3	12	-21	-2.2	12
20	Angers	18	2	3	13	-17	-4.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	1	3	+28	+7.0	40
2	Marseille	18	12	3	3	+17	+2.4	39
3	Monaco	18	10	5	3	+10	+4.8	35
4	Lyon	18	8	3	7	+4	-1.7	27
5	Nice	18	7	6	5	+4	+2.8	27
6	Lens	17	6	8	3	+7	+5.9	26
7	Clermont	17	7	5	5	+4	-2.3	26
8	Lorient	18	6	6	6	-4	-7.7	24
9	Lille	18	6	5	7	+6	+3.4	23
10	Montpellier	18	7	2	9	+1	-0.3	23
11	Reims	18	4	9	5	-2	-0.3	21
12	Rennes	18	5	5	8	+0	-0.9	20
13	Toulouse	17	6	2	9	-7	-0.0	20
14	Strasbourg	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
15	Brest	18	3	6	9	-9	-6.1	15
16	Nantes	18	2	7	9	-11	-5.1	13
17	Auxerre	18	3	3	12	-18	-5.5	12
18	Ajaccio	18	3	2	13	-28	-7.4	11
19	Troyes	18	3	1	14	-24	-12.8	10
20	Angers	17	1	2	14	-31	-10.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.