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Bundesliga
Referee: S Jablonski
Augsburg
U S T U T
0–1
Full-time
Leverkusen
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Augsburg Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
0,8
2,8
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 53%
25%
81%
Points per game
1,1
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 76%
63%
88%
Both score Ø 66%
75%
56%
Average goals
3,4
3,6
Scored
1,5
2,9
Conceded
1,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+2,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,50 xG 1,97
24% Possession 76%
2 Shots 25
0 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
0 Corners 12
3 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 4
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Augsburg 11. · Leverkusen 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leverkusen 16 13 3 0 +34 +18.1 42
2 Bayern Munich 16 13 2 1 +37 +35.1 41
3 Stuttgart 16 11 1 4 +18 +21.2 34
4 RB Leipzig 16 10 3 3 +21 +14.0 33
5 Dortmund 16 7 6 3 +5 +1.3 27
6 Ein Frankfurt 16 6 6 4 +6 -1.9 24
7 Hoffenheim 17 7 3 7 -1 -2.7 24
8 Freiburg 16 7 3 6 -5 +0.2 24
9 Heidenheim 16 6 2 8 -7 -16.3 20
10 Wolfsburg 16 6 1 9 -7 -5.0 19
11 Augsburg 16 4 6 6 -7 -3.4 18
12 M'gladbach 16 4 5 7 -4 -4.5 17
13 Werder Bremen 16 4 4 8 -7 -7.3 16
14 Bochum 16 3 7 6 -15 -7.5 16
15 Union Berlin 15 4 1 10 -14 -4.6 13
16 Mainz 16 1 7 8 -15 -1.4 10
17 FC Koln 16 2 4 10 -18 -18.0 10
18 Darmstadt 16 2 4 10 -21 -17.3 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Augsburg Leverkusen
Ruben Vargas 🟨
18′
Iago 🟨
19′
Niklas Dorsch 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 Jonas Hofmann
A. Maier 🔁
↦ R. Vargas
62′
62′
🔁 F. Wirtz
↦ A. Hložek
D. Beljo 🔁
↦ E. Demirović
80′
S. Michel 🔁
↦ P. Tietz
80′
A. Engels 🔁
↦ F. Jensen
80′
R. Gumny 🔁
↦ E. Rexhbeçaj
88′
94′
E. Palacios 0–1
Álex Grimaldo
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Augsburg

4-3-1-2
1 F. Dahmen G
43 K. Mbabu D
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
19 F. Uduokhai D
22 Iago D
24 F. Jensen M
30 N. Dorsch M
8 E. Rexhbeçaj M
16 R. Vargas M
9 E. Demirović F
21 P. Tietz F
Bench (9)
10 A. Maier
7 D. Beljo
20 S. Michel
27 A. Engels
2 R. Gumny
18 T. Breithaupt
5 P. Pfeiffer
26 F. Winther
40 T. Koubek

Coach: J. Thorup

Leverkusen

3-4-1-2
1 L. Hrádecký G
2 J. Stanišić D
8 R. Andrich D
3 P. Hincapié D
30 J. Frimpong M
34 G. Xhaka M
25 E. Palacios M
20 Álex Grimaldo M
7 J. Hofmann F
23 A. Hložek F
14 P. Schick F
Bench (9)
10 F. Wirtz
19 N. Tella
24 T. Fosu-Mensah
17 M. Kovář
18 N. Mbamba
4 J. Tah
32 G. Puerta
11 N. Amiri
40 F. Onyeka

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,67
U
4,63
B ✓
1,54
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,54
U2,5 ✓
2,49
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Jablonski · 136 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.