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La Liga

Referee: Javier Iglesias Villanueva

Las Palmas

S U T T T

3–0

Full-time

Villarreal

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

37%

26%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

26%

74%

Both score Ø 63%

42%

84%

Average goals

1,7

3,4

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

0,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,66 xG 1,92

56% Possession 44%

8 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 8

13 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Las Palmas 10. · Villarreal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	15	3	1	+29	+15.5	48
2	Girona	19	15	3	1	+22	+9.0	48
3	Barcelona	19	12	5	2	+14	+24.4	41
4	Ath Bilbao	19	11	5	3	+17	+15.8	38
5	Ath Madrid	19	12	2	5	+16	+10.6	38
6	Sociedad	19	8	8	3	+11	+1.7	32
7	Betis	19	6	10	3	+1	-1.5	28
8	Getafe	19	6	8	5	-1	-4.4	26
9	Valencia	19	7	5	7	-1	-0.6	26
10	Las Palmas	19	7	4	8	-1	-11.0	25
11	Vallecano	19	5	8	6	-6	-3.6	23
12	Osasuna	19	6	4	9	-7	-3.8	22
13	Alaves	20	5	5	10	-9	+0.8	20
14	Villarreal	19	5	4	10	-11	-7.5	19
15	Mallorca	19	3	9	7	-6	-4.0	18
16	Sevilla	20	3	7	10	-5	-7.6	16
17	Celta	19	3	7	9	-9	-1.0	16
18	Cadiz	19	2	9	8	-12	-12.4	15
19	Granada	19	2	5	12	-18	-10.9	11
20	Almeria	19	0	5	14	-24	-9.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+12	+10.8	28
2	Real Madrid	9	8	1	0	+18	+13.4	25
3	Girona	10	8	1	1	+12	+4.2	25
4	Barcelona	10	8	0	2	+10	+12.2	24
5	Ath Bilbao	10	7	2	1	+14	+14.0	23
6	Betis	9	5	4	0	+8	+6.1	19
7	Sociedad	10	5	4	1	+7	+0.6	19
8	Getafe	9	5	3	1	+3	+0.0	18
9	Valencia	9	5	2	2	+7	+3.8	17
10	Las Palmas	9	4	3	2	+3	-2.8	15
11	Alaves	9	4	1	4	-1	+5.0	13
12	Mallorca	9	2	6	1	+1	-1.7	12
13	Osasuna	10	3	3	4	-3	+0.4	12
14	Cadiz	9	2	5	2	-1	+2.1	11
15	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-3	-2.4	10
16	Villarreal	10	3	1	6	-4	+0.9	10
17	Granada	10	2	4	4	-5	-2.4	10
18	Celta	10	2	4	4	-5	+5.0	10
19	Vallecano	9	1	5	3	-7	-3.5	8
20	Almeria	9	0	4	5	-8	-0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.1	23
2	Girona	9	7	2	0	+10	+4.8	23
3	Barcelona	9	4	5	0	+4	+12.2	17
4	Ath Bilbao	9	4	3	2	+3	+1.8	15
5	Vallecano	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.1	15
6	Sociedad	9	3	4	2	+4	+1.1	13
7	Ath Madrid	9	3	1	5	+4	-0.2	10
8	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-4	-4.2	10
9	Las Palmas	10	3	1	6	-4	-8.2	10
10	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	-7	-8.4	9
11	Betis	10	1	6	3	-7	-7.6	9
12	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.4	9
13	Getafe	10	1	5	4	-4	-4.5	8
14	Alaves	11	1	4	6	-8	-4.3	7
15	Sevilla	9	1	3	5	-2	-5.2	6
16	Celta	9	1	3	5	-4	-5.9	6
17	Mallorca	10	1	3	6	-7	-2.3	6
18	Cadiz	10	0	4	6	-11	-14.5	4
19	Granada	9	0	1	8	-13	-8.5	1
20	Almeria	10	0	1	9	-16	-9.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.