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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

Mainz

U T U T U

1–1

Full-time

Wolfsburg

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Wolfsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,0

2,2

Scored

0,3

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 22%

38%

Points per game

0,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

50%

69%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

63%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,42 xG 0,56

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 16. · Wolfsburg 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+34	+18.1	42
2	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+37	+35.1	41
3	Stuttgart	16	11	1	4	+18	+21.2	34
4	RB Leipzig	16	10	3	3	+21	+14.0	33
5	Dortmund	16	7	6	3	+5	+1.3	27
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	6	4	+6	-1.9	24
7	Hoffenheim	17	7	3	7	-1	-2.7	24
8	Freiburg	16	7	3	6	-5	+0.2	24
9	Heidenheim	16	6	2	8	-7	-16.3	20
10	Wolfsburg	16	6	1	9	-7	-5.0	19
11	Augsburg	16	4	6	6	-7	-3.4	18
12	M'gladbach	16	4	5	7	-4	-4.5	17
13	Werder Bremen	16	4	4	8	-7	-7.3	16
14	Bochum	16	3	7	6	-15	-7.5	16
15	Union Berlin	15	4	1	10	-14	-4.6	13
16	Mainz	16	1	7	8	-15	-1.4	10
17	FC Koln	16	2	4	10	-18	-18.0	10
18	Darmstadt	16	2	4	10	-21	-17.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	8	1	0	+23	+16.8	25
2	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+28	+19.9	22
3	Stuttgart	9	7	1	1	+19	+18.3	22
4	RB Leipzig	8	6	2	0	+18	+10.5	20
5	Dortmund	9	5	2	2	+2	+4.4	17
6	Heidenheim	8	5	1	2	+3	-4.4	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.9	15
8	Freiburg	7	4	2	1	+4	+5.7	14
9	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.8	14
10	Wolfsburg	8	4	1	3	+3	-2.2	13
11	Augsburg	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.5	13
12	M'gladbach	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.3	11
13	Bochum	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.8	10
14	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-1.3	10
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.5	8
16	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.2	5
17	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.4	5
18	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+9	+15.2	19
2	Leverkusen	7	5	2	0	+11	+1.3	17
3	Hoffenheim	9	5	1	3	+1	-4.2	16
4	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.5	13
5	Stuttgart	7	4	0	3	-1	+2.9	12
6	Dortmund	7	2	4	1	+3	-3.1	10
7	Freiburg	9	3	1	5	-9	-5.5	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	3	3	-1	-3.7	9
9	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-4.7	6
10	Mainz	9	0	6	3	-8	-3.3	6
11	Wolfsburg	8	2	0	6	-10	-2.8	6
12	Bochum	9	1	3	5	-18	-13.4	6
13	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-9	-3.9	5
14	FC Koln	9	1	2	6	-14	-11.8	5
15	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-15	-14.8	5
16	Heidenheim	8	1	1	6	-10	-12.0	4
17	Union Berlin	7	1	0	6	-10	-3.3	3
18	Werder Bremen	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.